Africa Economics Update Next SARB Governor faces an uphill task Speculation is mounting that one of the current Deputy Governors will take over from Gill Marcus as Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. But the bigger picture is that, whoever is appointed... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy subsidy reform in the Gulf is likely to be slow-going Large energy subsidies in the GCC lead to a number of distortions in their economies, including smaller current account and fiscal surpluses as well as weaker investment in the non-hydrocarbon sector... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates outlook dependent on credit growth dynamics Following last week's strong GDP figures, the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its deposit and lending rates on hold at 6.5% and 8.0%, respectively, today. But with credit growth staying sluggish... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today's PMI reading suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector have held up better than expected recently on the back of healthy export demand. That said, the economy still faces significant... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Even as the Fed has reduced the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the annual rate of broad money growth has remained largely stable at close to 6%. 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Minimum wage pledges unlikely to benefit households much With real wages still falling, proposals to raise the national minimum wage (NMW) look set to play a key role in political parties’ general election campaigns. But given the likely adverse effects on... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor China's growth slowing to five-year low in Q3 August may not have been as weak as it initially looked but the China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy has nonetheless slowed this quarter, with continued weakness in real estate and... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are share buy-backs really still boosting the US stock market? 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) The decline in existing home sales in August hints at a vulnerability in the recovery in sales activity – it’s built on higher than normal levels of cash buyers and investors. These groups took a step... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Durability of economic recovery still in doubt After a slow start to the year, partly due to bad weather, the recent run of good data since then indicate that the economy continued to grow well above its potential annualised growth rate of 2.0% in... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The unexpected rise in the official core inflation rate, mainly due to recent price hikes in household communications, doesn't appear to reflect any tightening in domestic economic conditions and... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Property market pauses for breath in August Investment market activity cooled in August, although this was always on the cards after the record level of transactions in June and July. Over the past few months, the most active investors have... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the Baltics So far at least, the crisis in Ukraine doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact on overall exports from or capital flows to the Baltic States, despite their relatively large ties to Russia. However... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria's export sector to continue dragging on growth The weakness of Nigeria’s export sector is down to a variety of factors, including a lack of competitiveness, falling oil prices and the expansion of shale oil extraction in the US. These factors... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower oil prices are a problem for Lat Am, not the Gulf Major oil producers in the Gulf stand to lose the most in absolute terms from the recent fall in prices, but conservative management of the oil sector means that the region will simply save less. By... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Low uptake dashes ECB’s hopes for TLTROs The low uptake at the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) last week supported our view that the policy is unlikely to be successful at boosting bank lending. It... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
