China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today's official PMI suggests that while conditions have held up better than many had expected on the back of healthy foreign demand, the cooling property sector has continued to weigh on economic... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The sharp deterioration in business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector in today's Tankan suggests that output may have shrunk yet again in the third quarter. 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - GDP (Jul.) Canada's weaker than expected GDP data for July suggest that third-quarter GDP growth might turn out to be slightly weaker than our below-consensus forecast of 2.4% annualised, following the weather... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBI holds rates, but cuts could soon come onto the agenda The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its policy rates on hold today but, given the weakness of recent activity data and the fact that inflation has fallen below the central bank’s near-term target, we... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy shifts up a gear 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Major revisions don’t alter bigger consumer picture much Revisions have left the recovery in household spending since 2009 looking a little less strong thanpreviously thought. Nonetheless, recent spending growth remains robust by past standards and... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets suffer more than most in latest EM sell-off Markets in Latin America have been hit particularly hard in the latest EM sell-off. A combination of factors has been responsible, including falling commodity prices and a renewed focus on the likely... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off highlights divisions in rate outlook The sharp sell-off in the Russian ruble and Turkish lira this month couldn’t have come at a worse time for policymakers. Growth is sluggish in both countries, but high inflation and concerns about... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in September doesn’t change the bigger picture that households’ financial positions are stronger now than they have been for most of... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The marginal rise in house prices in July, which did no more than reverse the previous month’s decline, supports our view that house price inflation will slow to 4% y/y by the end of this year. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will Turkey’s slowdown have on its retail sector? The significant fall in the Turkish lira, coupled with a consumer-sector slowdown, will ensure that landlords of secondary schemes continue to face downwards pressure on rents. However, Turkey’s prime... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi dollars lead Asia’s currency sell-off Asia’s financial markets performed poorly in September, largely reflecting concerns about the outlook for US monetary policy. The New Zealand and Australian dollars were the worst performers, but... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor GDP Trackers suggest EM growth slowing once again Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been concentrated in Latin America and Emerging Europe, but there are some signs that growth has... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, probably the last in the easing cycle The National Bank of Romania’s rate cut earlier today probably marks the end of the recent easing cycle. After all, forthcoming data are likely to show inflation rising to within the Bank’s tolerance... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed ending QE3 but global policy still loose Although the US Fed is set to announce the end of its asset purchases in late October, global monetary conditions should remain highly accommodative. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
