Global Trade Monitor Broad-based malaise in world trade continues World trade contracted in August, and more timely data suggest that it has continued to fare badly since then. But rather than being another sign that the global economy has stalled, the slowdown in... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine economy slumps following default Capital outflows following the Argentine government’s default probably contributed to the slump in economic activity in August, leaving the economy on course to contract by 1-2% this year. Unless the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee market set to tighten Notwithstanding the possibility of consecutive weather-damaged harvests in Brazil, given the combination of this year’s fall in Brazilian output in advance of an “off” year, and pressure on stocks as... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling commodity prices to keep Asian inflation low Declines in commodity prices have helped push down inflation across Emerging Asia in recent months. We expect inflation to remain low over the next year, which will leave room for central banks to... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much damage would a delay in the tax hike do? Recent comments by PM Abe suggest that next year’s scheduled hike in the sales tax might be delayed. Concerns about the economic impact of a further tax hike are understandable given the weakness of... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q3) The preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP showed that the UK’s economic recovery has broadly maintained its momentum despite the weak global environment and stronger sterling exchange rate. 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail rental values finally show signs of life All-property rental values grew by 0.4%m/m in September, the second-biggest monthly increase since mid-2007. Industrial and office sector rental values continued their recovery, but perhaps the most... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recovery not helping all EMs Although the US economy has emerged as a bright spot of the uneven global recovery, its imports from EM economies have not picked up anywhere near as much as would have been expected based on past... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean recovery to continue GDP growth in Korea picked up in the third quarter, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand. Looking ahead, we think the economy should gather more momentum in the coming quarters helped by a... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will inflows from abroad pick up again soon? Net inflows into global ETF and mutual funds in September were at their lowest level since March, when there was last an outflow. While this was due in part to a continued small outflow from funds... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Restructuring petro-loans won’t save Venezuela from default On the face of it, the Venezuelan government’s restructuring of petro-loans from China should boost foreign currency revenues and ease the economy’s severe dollar drought. But in reality, the deal... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers continue to benefit from easing inflation The outlook remains bright for further strong growth in consumer spending over the coming quarters. Although the jobs recovery has slowed, the economy has retained a healthy degree of momentum... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Low oil prices provide relief for MENA’s resource-poor economies In contrast to the Gulf, the rest of the MENA region stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. That being said, a period of low oil prices alone won’t be sufficient to reduce these economies’... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What do the PMIs tell us about the prospects for equities? 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that global growth fears are overdone Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth barely slowed in October, and thus should help to calm fears that the global economy is shuddering to a halt. However, they... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
