Europe Economics Update Italy still not ready to pay down its debt Italy’s fiscal position is gradually improving. But contrary to the message from official forecasts, Italy has not yet done enough to start paying down its colossal public debt. 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further big falls in EM currencies unlikely, but expect volatility The Greek crisis appears to be coming to a head, but so far at least there has been very little negative impact on emerging market currencies. Should Greece default, and especially if that entails... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (May) India's trade data for May are a mixed bag, with the trade deficit narrowing despite another contraction in export growth. The big picture, however, is that India's external position is far less a... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Severe demographic headwinds to hold back Hong Kong Hong Kong has both the highest life expectancy and the lowest birth rate in the world. One consequence is that Hong Kong’s working age population is set to decline by more than that of any other... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Policymakers have more work to do Policymakers and the markets are too complacent in thinking that the slowdowns in GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will be modest and short-lived. In contrast, we believe that growth in... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected Peruvian economic activity data for April were encouraging and, while the monthly numbers are volatile, figures released over the past few months show a clear trend towards... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Contagion from Greek crisis likely to boost gold price further 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) Sri Lanka’s economy grew by 6.4% y/y in the first quarter of the year, unchanged from the final quarter of last year. Looking ahead, while the economy should continue to grow at a decent pace in 2015... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in May reflects the ongoing contraction in the mining sector and the impact of the stronger dollar on manufacturers. 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The larger than expected decline in April's manufacturing sales suggests that the recent big gains in factory jobs were perhaps a head fake and that the economy began this quarter on a weak footing... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC hints at smaller rate cuts ahead The Russian central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 11.5%, at today’s MPC meeting, but struck a more cautious note on the near-term outlook for inflation. As a result, while we expect... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus An introduction to Rare Earth Elements Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are highly sought-after chemical elements which are essential components of a wide range of products, ranging from smart phones to wind turbines and cancer-treating drugs... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has Help to Buy really helped? The Help to Buy scheme was able to temporarily boost the availability of low deposit mortgages, helping a lucky few first-time buyers. But that improvement is proving to be temporary, as the resulting... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) April’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the euro’s depreciation is finally starting to boost net exports. 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Most sectors have scope for productivity rebound One area of debate surrounding the UK’s productivity puzzle regards whether the UK’s weak productivity growth is confined to just a few sectors or is a more widespread problem. We still think that... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
