Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Growth deceleration to trigger more easing by October The strength of Q1 GDP seems to have vindicated the Bank of Japan’s optimistic outlook on the economy. However, we think that growth will be much slower in the rest of the year, so inflation is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation edged up in May, but it remains firmly in negative territory and close to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Importantly, core inflation fell further, providing... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound won't revive economy The recent rebound in crude oil prices isn't enough to make new oil sands projects profitable again. With the list of cancelled projects growing with each passing day, we expect falling business... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1) The slowdown in GDP growth in Colombia in the first quarter was not as bad as some had feared, but it was still a weak outturn. And with the full effects of the fall in oil prices yet to feed through... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) The rate of house price inflation edged up to 4.6% in May, from 4.4%, and the recent rebound in the existing home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that is where it might remain over the rest of... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Myth of the weak consumer exposed The conventional wisdom is that consumers have remained unusually cautious during this recovery. But between the middle of last year and the middle of this year, consumption appears to have been... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) & PPI (May) The rebound in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to 94.6 in June, from 90.7, was impressive given the surge in gasoline prices over the past few weeks. It appears that the US... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A macroeconomic approach to US stock market valuation The valuation of the US stock market does not appear as high when quantified with macroeconomic data as it does when a more conventional approach is taken. What’s more, we continue to think that the... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s credit slowdown has not eliminated risks Credit growth has continued to slow in the economies which we previously highlighted at greatest risk of a financial crisis. However, with credit still expanding at a faster pace than nominal GDP... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Positive case for gold remains intact Most commodity prices have moved in narrow ranges in the past week. US natural gas prices continued their see-saw pattern, buffeted by weather and other seasonal factors. But other markets were... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Oil price effect to unwind, but deflation risks persist Headline inflation looks certain to rebound sharply in most advanced economies during the coming months as the impact of last year’s oil price slump unwinds. Looking further ahead, faster wage growth... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up in May but not enough to put the Reserve Bank’s inflation target under threat. 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The impact of China’s “new normal” on metals demand The sources of industrial metals demand will alter as China shifts away from investment-led growth, but demand should not collapse. Indeed, demand for metals used in consumer goods could benefit. 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Was Q1’s growth as good as it gets for the euro-zone? Despite the benefits of a weak euro and low oil prices, the latest hard data suggest that the upturn in the euro-zone economy has not gathered further momentum in Q2. This tentatively supports survey... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
