India Economics Update Modest rise in MSP strengthens case for another rate cut The small rise in guaranteed prices for crops produced during the monsoon season that was announced by the government yesterday marks an important step away from populist policymaking of the past... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Debt swap helping to boost credit growth The local government debt swap is starting to have an impact on the flow of financing in China that has been widely overlooked and that should support the economy. Local governments have begun to... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in New Zealand's economy in the first quarter was partly down to the temporary impact of a drought on the agricultural sector, but there are a number of other factors that will keep... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this year We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for a September lift-off As Fed officials left their interest rate projections for this year unchanged, it appears that the FOMC is still on course for a September lift-off. The 0.63% median of those projections implies that... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a sharp drop last week, the pace of the fall in crude oil stocks slowed this week. At the same time, there was a modest uptick in gasoline stocks, which are now in the upper half of their long... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity markets come off the boil again After a strong performance between mid-April and mid-May, all four commodity sub-indices fell over the past month. The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell particularly sharply, largely due to... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would euro-zone equities fare after a “Grexit”? If Greece does default on her sovereign debt, the euro-zone stock market will probably fall further, especially if this is swiftly followed by her abandoning the euro. But even in the event of a “... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for PGMs? The potential impact on precious metals demand of China’s transition to a consumption-led growth model could be substantial. We believe that palladium and platinum in particular will benefit due to... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC unlikely to follow the US Fed closely this time The conventional wisdom is that when the US Fed changes interest rates, the UK MPC usually follows suit soon after. However, the historical record contains several exceptions to this pattern. And as... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rising inflation, stronger output suggest rate hike in South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector has remained surprisingly resilient in the face of power shortages, and rising inflation. A string of relatively strong growth figures... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth picks up, but rebound likely to fizzle out Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 5.0% y/y in April, supported by a rebound in oil production and robust growth in the non-oil sector. But activity is likely to soften in... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Q1/April) Employment rates are already at record highs, so the moderation in the pace of job creation in the three months to April is not an obvious cause for alarm, especially as the data show a healthy spread... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Data (Apr./May) The latest labour market figures contained further signs of a pick-up in nominal wage growth. If this continues without any recovery in productivity, then a rate rise could come back on the table this... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
