Capital Daily Recovery in euro probably due to complacency, not carry trades 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain strong despite poor monsoon According to the World Gold Council (WGC), rural households in India allocate 7-8% of their annual savings to gold. Good harvests raise income levels and translate into greater gold demand. However... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May. 15) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production grew by nearly 12% y/y in May, led by a marked increase in China’s output. Excluding China, global production rose by a... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for May show a 2.1% y/y decline in global steel output, with falls in most of the largest producers. However, some recovery can be expected in coming months, notably... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What explains the recovery in the euro? Despite the crisis in Greece the euro remains near multi-week highs against the dollar. Some have suggested that the euro has actually benefited from the uncertainty, due to the unwinding of short... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee likely to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has rallied in the past few days, but we expect the currency to come under some pressure as the US Fed begins to tighten policy later this year. However, given the huge improvement in... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising jobs vacancy rate a lagging indicator The increase in the national jobs vacancy rate over the past year suggests that the economy has withstood the oil price shock. Closer examination, however, reveals that this measure lags economic... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rates to rise more rapidly than Fed's projections imply Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) While May's inflation figures are consistent with the Bank of Canada's forecast, the incoming data suggest that the real economy is still underperforming. If economic growth undershoots the Bank's... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Industrial metals continue to struggle The escalating crisis surrounding Greece’s negotiations with its creditors and its potentially negative implications for the euro-zone economy weighed on investor sentiment this week. Industrial... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Capital controls likely, but they can’t prevent Grexit Accelerating deposit outflows from Greek banks and the ECB’s reluctance to fill the gap with further emergency loans have increased the likelihood that capital controls are imminent. We discuss the... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Renewed decline in Treasury yields is likely to prove temporary 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks highlight need for MPC to nurture recovery The odds of Greece defaulting on its debt, and possibly exiting the euro-zone too, seem to be growing by the day. However, as we have stressed before, the UK’s direct economic and financial exposures... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Grexit” mean for commodities? A Greek default has looked increasingly likely for some time and, in isolation, may have few implications for global commodity markets. However, the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Treasuries vulnerable to a reassessment of Fed policy The path of the federal funds rate that is implied by the yields of US Treasuries is much gentler than the one that we project. This leads us to forecast that the 10-year yield will end 2015 higher... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The end is (really) near The failure to reach a deal at last week’s Eurogroup meeting and the rapid outflow of deposits from Greek banks suggest that a near-term euro-zone exit may now be more likely than not. We do not buy... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
