Energy Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for energy markets? China’s efforts to rebalance its economy away from investment, manufacturing and exports towards a more consumer-led growth model are likely to have major implications for all types of energy... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A closer look at China’s import data China’s import data continue to suggest that, in general, demand for agricultural commodities remains weak. The main exception is sugar, where imports surged on low world prices. 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to lower its policy interest rate by 15bp to 1.50% hinted that the easing cycle has a little further to run. We have... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence mounts of a big second-quarter rebound There is now a wide mix of evidence showing that, after a very weak start to the year, the economy is booming again. May is turning out to be a particularly strong month: Existing home sales hit a six... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 1.8% m/m fall in headline durable goods orders in May was largely due to a 35.3% m/m decline in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft orders component. 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey keeps rates on hold, but hikes looking increasingly likely The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC remains too sanguine on the inflation outlook and the risks posed by the large... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK faces bigger external threats than a China slowdown The UK has become significantly more exposed in recent years to the Chinese economy, which has made a poor start to 2015. But this shouldn’t cause the UK economy too many problems – Greece remains by... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can the link between housing starts and sales be recalibrated? At first glance, the strong link between housing starts and transactions suggests that a step shift in housing supply will only be possible if turnover in the wider market is raised sharply first. But... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.) Despite the weaker tone of June’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey, it still suggests that the manufacturing sector’s recovery found some renewed momentum in the second quarter, after virtually grinding... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Amid the turmoil in Greece, June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI is encouraging. But the survey also suggests that the euro-zone recovery did not pick up much steam in Q2 and that there are clear risks to... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery Some of India's latest activity data are showing signs of improvement. For example, industrial production has accelerated over the past few months. Measures of expenditure and income tell a similar... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Could Asia be suffering from “bad” deflation after all? A handful of Asian economies have been experiencing deflation for several months now, leading some commentators to suggest that a lasting and damaging period of falling prices lies ahead. However, we... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Early business survey evidence for June supports our relatively positive view on the outlook for China’s commodity demand, especially metals. The latest euro-zone data are encouraging too, although we... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The flash reading of China’s manufacturing PMI rose further in June, led by a rise in new export orders. This, put together with recent evidence that policy measures are helping to shore up domestic... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The renewed fall in the manufacturing PMI in June provides additional evidence that activity in the sector may have fallen in the second quarter. 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales rebounded to their highest level in almost six years in May, showing that the boosts to housing activity from strong jobs growth and looser credit conditions have outweighed any... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
