Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to pick up as oil price effect fades EM inflation is set to accelerate in the months ahead as downward pressure from thefall in oil prices late last year unwinds. This will ease concerns about deflation in anumber of EMs, including China... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outperformance of EM local currency bonds set to continue We expect emerging market (EM) local currency bonds to continue outperforming their hard currencycounterparts over the next eighteen months as EM interest rates remain lower than the marketgenerally... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (May) A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Ringgit weakness to deter policy loosening in Malaysia The Malaysian ringgit has been Emerging Asia’s worst-performing major currency over the pastyear. While a weak ringgit should bolster Malaysia’s exports, it also poses a threat to financialstability... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hawks ruffling feathers but rate hike still a way off Given the air of uncertainty hanging over Europe, it is perhaps surprising that markets haverecently brought forwards their expectations for the timing of the first hike in official interest ratesin... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in buy-to-let lending highlights inconsistencies in regulation The record share of mortgage lending going to the non-regulated sector could be a sign that lenders are looking to get around rules designed to bolster financial stability by turning to the buy-to-let... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks building in China, Venezuela in crisis The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (May) House prices held their ground in May according to the Land Registry, although the strong gain in April means they are still rising on the less volatile three-month on three-month measure. Nationally... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data were consistent with continued economic recovery.But with the probability of a Greek default and Grexit building by the day, the riskof a full-blown banking crisis in the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation report suggests more tightening to come The Central Bank of Brazil’s Q2 Inflation Report gives the clearest indication yet that policymakersbelieve they have more work to do in the fight against inflation. We’ve pencilled in another... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Changes to Brazil’s inflation target reinforce hawkish message The changes announced by Brazil’s government to the central bank’s inflation target are small in thegrand scheme of things but reinforce the overall message that policymakers are serious about getting... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy continued down the path to recovery in the second quarter, led by robust growth in the manufacturing sector. We are nudging up our growth forecast for this year to reflect the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Waiting for zinc ... Tightening supply, as a number of large mines close, is often cited as a key reason why investors and analysts have been positive on the outlook for zinc prices. However, the expected market tightness... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation? We estimate that wages would have to rise by 3% or more to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Even if the unemployment rate drops further in the months ahead, we think that wage growth may... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
