Global Markets Update On the relative valuation of US equities and bonds One reason why Fed tightening may not rattle the US stock market is that the price of equity is currently low compared to that of debt. Our forecast is that the S&P 500 will end next year at 2,200... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Further FX restrictions a worrying sign The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to further tighten restrictions on foreign exchange market will not succeed in reducing demand for dollars. Faced with weak export earnings and tumbling FX... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May) Mortgage approvals have now increased every month since the start of the year, with remortgaging activity seeing a particularly strong rise. This improvement is set to continue, as rising earnings... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unemployment outlook points to faster rate hikes in US than UK Having declined in lock-step with one another over the past three and a half years, we think the unemployment rate is likely fall more rapidly in the US than in the UK between now and the end of 2017... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) Although the Ifo survey points to an acceleration in Germany’s economy in Q2, its fall in June suggests that Greece’s crisis is starting to weigh on sentiment there. 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much further can unemployment fall? At 5.5%, the unemployment rate is getting close to past estimates of its ‘natural rate’, i.e. the rate at which further falls become incompatible with the inflation target. Indeed, the stronger labour... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Following the drop in the flash estimate of the manufacturing PMI, the fall in small business confidence in June adds to evidence that the economy slowed sharply in Q2. 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s government wavering on fiscal consolidation Egypt’s public finances are gradually improving, but the recent watering down of tax and spending measures combined with the relatively unambitious targets set out in a recent draft budget has raised... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor GDP growth on track to rebound in Q2 Although activity remains subdued in parts of the economy, most notably property and heavy industry, our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that policy support is helping to shore up growth. 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth to recover, but remain uneven Preliminary business surveys for June still suggest that global growth will rebound following a weak start to the year. However, the recovery is set to remain uneven, with growth in the US (and UK)... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit might be unavoidable, but it need not be a crisis In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson Prize for our submission on how the exit from the eurozone of a small country like Greece might best be managed. Given the still significant risk that... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rates of broad money and bank loans slowed a little in May, but that is mainly due to base effects. Furthermore, our reconstructed measure of M3 still increased by a relatively... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) Strong growth in both new and existing sales in May pushed total home sales up to an eight-year high. This confirms that the renewed strength in the labour market and consumer spending are feeding... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of the relative prices of US equities and bonds 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
