Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) & Econ. Act. (Apr.) Brazil’s economic data are going from bad to worse. Figures to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is now running at close to 9% y/y. Meanwhile, the central bank’s Economic Activity... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will homebuilding ever return to the highs of 2006? We are forecasting housing starts to surge by almost 40% over the next few years, reaching 1.5m by the end of 2017. It’s possible that starts could rise even more rapidly in the short term as builders... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2015 China’s banks are reporting a deterioration in loan demand that raises questions about the effectiveness of recent policy loosening. We put more weight on actual lending, which has remained strong... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s external adjustment has further to run While Spanish exports continue to perform well, imports are also surging as domestic demand recovers. Without further competitiveness gains, Spain’s current account risks falling back into deficit. 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures brought some more good news to the Chancellor ahead of his first Budget of the new parliament on 8th July. However, with a long way to go in order to restore the public... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss property to produce the lowest total returns in next five years Weak rental value growth and limited inward yield shift will restrict capital value growth in Switzerland. As a result, when combined with a low income yield, over the next five years Swiss property... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weather conditions take charge of crop prices Agricultural commodity prices have had mixed fortunes since mid-May, with roughly half seeing rises and half seeing falls. While concerns about supply constraints have helped support cocoa and robusta... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for US Treasuries We have revised up our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 50bp each, to 3.0% and 3.5%. Our previous forecasts for the yield, which is now around 2.3%, had been based... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia heading in the wrong direction Recent measures to boost growth in Indonesia have failed to address the main structural factors that are holding the economy back. Unless the government changes its approach, we see little prospect of... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat from cheaper oil far from over Only a small part of the recent plunge in energy prices has been passed on to consumers in Japan, in large part because firms rather than households are the biggest users of oil and they have not... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still has more work to do The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) repeated statements that it is still open to further rate cuts, depending on the incoming data, have not changed the view of some that 2.0% marks the floor for... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reviewing the lessons from past devaluations Devaluations have generally had a more positive impact on growth in economies which have a lot of spare capacity, where monetary conditions have been excessively tight and where a debt write-off is... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why commodity investors shouldn’t fear the Fed The US central bank is edging towards a first interest rate hike, most likely in September. Thereafter, we expect rates to rise faster than the markets (and Fed officials themselves) generally... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global financial conditions loose despite prospect of Fed hikes Yesterday’s FOMC statement and interest rate projections suggest that the US Fed is still on track to begin raising rates in September. Nevertheless, broader monetary conditions should remain highly... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What does the outlook for US interest rates mean for commodities? 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
