US Economic Outlook Fed on track for September lift-off The weak start to the year, which we believe was principally due to the record cold winter in the Northeast, doesn't change our view that the US economy will perform strongly over the next 18 months... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The 0.4% m/m increase in May's consumer price index was almost entirely due to a 10.4% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Core prices increased by a more modest 0.1% m/m last month, but the three-month... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (May) May’s activity data brought further bad news for the Russian economy, with the slump in industry and fixed investment deepening. All in all, our GDP Tracker suggests that output may have contracted by... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (May) Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag, with strengthening consumer spending broadly offsetting weakness in industry. Overall, it looks like GDP may have grown by around 3.5% y/y, roughly in... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay growth back to pre-crisis rates Alongside strong employment growth and virtually zero inflation, households are now enjoying a significant recovery in wage growth. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts likely in Indonesia before year-end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold at 7.50% against a backdrop of slowing growth, high inflation and a weakening currency. We doubt there will be any changes in interest rates... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening unlikely to trigger a re-run of 1994 EM crash Fed tightening will probably be more aggressive than the market expects, but we do not expect it to trigger a re-run of the 1994 crash in EM financial markets. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pension reforms giving small boost to spending The Chancellor’s announcement regarding the amount of money withdrawn from pensions since the new freedoms took effect in April supports our view that the changes will provide a boost, but a... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) While retail sales volumes only edged up in May, the underlying picture looks robust. And with pay growth picking up, inflation set to remain below 1% for another six months and job creation still... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this year We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan’s budget deficit continue to shrink? Even if the government goes ahead with the sales tax that is currently scheduled for 2017, we think it will struggle to reduce the budget deficit much further. Rather than more fiscal reforms, the... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What would stronger productivity mean for rental values? For a given rate of economic growth, boosting productivity requires a slower rate of job creation, which in turn will tend to moderate the rate of rental value growth. Over the medium term, however... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
