UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May) The Bank of England reported a 4.7%m/m fall in approvals for house purchase in May. However, given the strong growth seen last month, we doubt this fall signals a downturn in lending. The demand for... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Weakness in PGM prices should prove temporary Expectations of a strong increase in mine supply,coupled with abundant above-ground stocks,have prompted many analysts to revise down theirforecasts for platinum and palladium prices thisyear and... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jun) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer Survey for Junesuggested that the euro-zone recovery may have gained some pace in Q2. But thesurvey was carried out before last weekend’s... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s fairly weak household borrowing figures provided further reassurance that therecovery in household spending is not founded upon an unsustainable pick-up incredit growth and is another reason to... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What can policymakers do now? The failure of Saturday’s policy moves to lift equity prices for more than a few minutes at the start of trading today has focused attention on what else policymakers might do to support the markets... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Rate hikes to add to pressure on South Africa’s economy April’s activity data hinted at an uptick in South Africa’s economy, but we believe that thecontinent’s most developed economy will continue to face significant headwinds over the comingmonths. Growth... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May) April’s rise in net lending to the commercial property sector was more than reversed in May. But the small rise in development lending activity suggests that confidence in the lending environment is... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers still up to their old tricks Argentina’s statistics office reported that GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in Q1, but independent data suggestthat although conditions have improved, there has not yet been a return to growth. And worryingly... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) The plunge in industrial production in May points to a contraction in GDP this quarter, and corroborates our view that the Bank of Japan will have to step up the pace of easing before too long. 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again? Although there is limited scope to reduce interest rates further, the hit from lower oil prices on the economy is taking a heavier toll than widely acknowledged. Without any offset from the non-energy... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why hasn't the fading fiscal drag boosted GDP growth? With the best will in the world towards the anti-austerians, the bigger fiscal squeeze in 2013 had amuch smaller impact on the economy's performance than many feared, while the more recentfading of... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A primer on the implications of “Grexit” for Emerging Europe With Greece’s bailout talks postponed (again), the country’s membership of the euro-zone is lookingprecarious. In this Update, we provide a primer on what “Grexit” might mean for Emerging Europe. 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Adverse weather boosts agriculturals The prices of many agricultural commodities rose this week as adverse weather, notably in the US but also in Europe, clouded prospects for forthcoming harvests. Meanwhile, the prices of industrial... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic downside from equity collapse underappreciated A “best case” scenario is that a continued equity collapse would knock a percentage point off China’s GDP growth simply by cooling currently overheated financial sector activity. But the rapid... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
