Emerging Europe Economics Focus Emerging Europe: Crisis or recovery? The Greek crisis has cast a dark cloud over the outlook for Emerging Europe, but as we explain in this Focus, while “Grexit” is a risk for a few countries, it doesn’t present the same threat that it... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) The small dip in prices in June reported by the Nationwide is not a sign of a cooling market. On an underlying basis prices are still rising, and with active housing demand finally recovering annual... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Market stability highlights improvement in external position Indian markets have been stable over the past few days, even in comparison to the muted reaction in global market to events in Greece. Looking ahead, even if the worsening situation there causes... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi external position deteriorating even before drop in oil prices The plunge in oil prices over the past year has forced Saudi Arabia to dip into its foreign exchange reserves, but one point that is often overlooked is that the Kingdom’s external position had been... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Activity slowdown dents hopes of strong price gains The Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation measure fell to near zero in May. Policymakers appear confident that a vigorous recovery in demand will create capacity shortages and boost price pressures in... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What would Grexit mean for Australia? The Australian economy would be largely untouched even if the current problems in Europe culminated in a widespread financial crisis and another euro-zone recession. That said, if the Reserve Bank of... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank boosts stimulus to weaken krona Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its monetary policy stimulus to protect the nascent uptrend in inflation and fight the recent strengthening of the krona. But with the upward pressure on the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Grains aside, commodities remain in the doldrums The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supplyfears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite additional... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices now more likely to fall than rise Wet conditions and lower-than-expected stocks in the US have pushed the price of soybeans to its highest level this year. But with plentiful global supplies, we don’t think the recent rally will last... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Grains aside, commodities remain in the doldrums The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supply fears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of oil unexpectedly rose last week after eight consecutive weeks of falls. However, stocks of gasoline resumed their downward trend. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update June business surveys point to steady Q2 growth Final manufacturing surveys for June, published by Markit today, do not alter our view that global growth recovered in Q2. Admittedly, the global manufacturing PMI edged back down to 51.0, but on past... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slump in BRICs manufacturing bottoming out June’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the slump in manufacturing across the BRIC economies may be bottoming out. It’s a mixed picture across smaller EMs, with those in Central Europe doing well, but... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview The Budget on 8th July will be all about providing the details of the second stage of austerity and hopes have been building that Mr Osborne will smooth the profile of the spending cuts. But the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Greece limited for now Greece’s crisis escalated further in June, culminating in a default to the IMF, the imposition of capital controls and the expiry of the second bailout programme. In response, Greek 10 year government... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The further modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 in June, from 52.8 in May, was exactly in line with our above consensus forecast and confirms that the outlook for industry is improving... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
