Energy Update Europe well positioned to weather Ukraine gas disruptions We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if it did, the EU is in a good position to cope as stocks are... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget to leave economy still facing big fiscal squeeze As far as the UK is concerned, the main point to take from last week’s Greek developments wasthat there are still limited signs of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. So far, so not-too-badthen... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Nai or Oxi? Sunday’s Greek referendum result looks likely to be very close. But regardless of whether the outcome is Nai or Oxi, unless any resulting deal includes a substantial form of debt relief, the crisis... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in real wages looks sustainable The latest labour market data provided further evidence that the recovery in wages now has momentum. Indeed, the headline (three-month average of the annual) growth rate in average weekly earnings... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is there an end in sight to the export slowdown? Emerging Asia’s exports have continued to disappoint over recent months. The downturn can be explained partly by falling commodity prices and currency effects. However, weak global demand has also... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (Jun.) Although euro-zone retail sales only rose slightly in May, the outlook for consumer spending is bright. And the rise in June’s composite PMI suggested that the wider recovery was sustained in Q2... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jun.) June’s Markit/CIPS report on services provided further reassurance that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 was just temporary and that the Greek crisis has so far had little bearing on the recovery’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Bubbles, basket cases and rising stars The economic outlook for Emerging Asia over the next few years varies considerably from one country to the next. Years of loose monetary policy in the region’s wealthy economies have led to the... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Grexit matter for Japan? With trade and direct financial ties between Japan and Europe relatively weak, the main channel through which Greek exit from the euro-zone could affect Japan is a pick-up in safe haven flows. If that... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Concerns about global growth weigh on prices The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell for the second consecutive month in June. Persistently subdued Chinese economic data and the risk of a messy Greek default and exit from the euro-zone... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The sharp drop in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.2% y/y, was driven almost entirely by a fall in food inflation, while core price pressures remain worryingly strong. Moreover, in contrast to the... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wider Australian trade deficit not that bad for Q2 GDP Since most of the recent sharp widening in Australia’s trade deficit is because commodity prices have reduced export values rather than due to outright falls in export volumes, net trade probably... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations suggest another currency slump is unlikely Emerging market (EM) currencies were remarkably calm in June despite growing turmoil in the euro-zone. Our synthetic EM exchange rate against the dollar depreciated by 0.5% last month. But the big... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Unanimous for one more month There is probably a greater chance of Angela Merkel becoming Prime Minister of Greece than the MPC raising interest rates this month. And while a couple of MPC members look set to respond to the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for gold? Gold faces important challenges as China rebalances its economy. Higher consumer spending should be positive for jewellery demand. A corresponding reduction in savings might reduce demand for gold as... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
