Precious Metals Update New (lower) forecasts for precious metals prices The prices of precious metals have not responded as we had anticipated to the growing risks of a Greek exit (“Grexit”) from the euro. We are therefore revising our end-year forecasts for gold, silver... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update All signs point south for oil prices The combination of a Greek “no” vote, signs of rising US oil production, positive signals of a nuclear deal between Iran and the West as well as slowing Chinese demand for imported oil means that we... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The drop in Saudi Arabia’s ‘whole economy’ PMI to a record low last month suggests that growth has slowed in the second quarter. Elsewhere, after a disappointing start to the year, Egypt’s economy is... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political crisis deepens in Brazil Brazil’s political crisis has deepened over the past few weeks, with the latest testimonies in the so-called “car wash” probe bringing allegations of corruption at Petrobras a step closer to the door... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Greek "no" leads us to revise our forecasts for oil and gold Commodity markets have largely responded in the ways we had anticipated to the growing risks of “Grexit”. Oil prices in particular have fallen, undermined also by the prospects of a deal with Iran and... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) The drop in Saudi Arabia’s ‘whole economy’ PMI to a record low last month suggests that growth has slowed in the second quarter. Elsewhere, after a disappointing start to the year, Egypt’s economy is... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Ringgit weakness to remain a constraint on policy in Malaysia The Malaysian ringgit weakened past its 1998-2005 peg level of 3.80 against the dollar today for the first time since the peg was scrapped. Today’s decline may have been triggered by concern over the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Oxi vote pushes Grexit probability further above 50% While yesterday’s resounding Oxi (No) vote in the Greek referendum does not guarantee a Greek exit from the euro-zone, it has surely raised the probability of such an event further above 50%. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will UK commercial property perform as strongly in H2? As we move into the second half of the year, it seems a good time to review our 2015 forecasts and to assess whether they could yet be knocked off track by the ongoing saga in Greece. Fortunately... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fast escape from oil slump unlikely With the fallout from the oil price slump still taking its toll on the economy and manufacturing hobbling along, growth prospects look only marginally better now than at the start of the year. For the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Prices struggle as investors stay away A lack of safe-haven flows, despite the crisis in Greece, has left the gold pricevulnerable to the prospect of US interest rate hikes later in the year. Silver hasunderperformed, as is usual when... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fears about global growth weigh on industrials It was another strong week for the prices of many agricultural commodities as the USDA’s latest report on planting and stocks stoked concerns about a deteriorating supply outlook. However, given high... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising demand and tighter supply to lift arabica prices High Brazilian exports have kept the coffee market well supplied and prices down. But we think lower global stocks and continued demand growth will support prices over the second half of the year. 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will the markets react to the outcome of Greece’s referendum? 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Greek crisis a sideshow for world economy The global economy is likely to expand at a decent pace in the second half ofthe year, despite escalating tensions in Greece and the recent gyrations in China’s equity market. Business surveys have... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand starts to recover Housing market activity is starting to recover, reflecting rising earnings, an improving labour market and record low mortgage rates. While the latest figures show stagnant or falling house prices... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
