Commodities Update Supply worries see prices spike and investors turn bullish The past month has seen a huge reversal of investor sentiment towards agricultural commodities. Surging grain and oilseed prices, on account of poor growing conditions in the US and Europe in... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $41.9bn in May, from $40.7bn, means that net exports are on track to be a very small drag on overall second-quarter GDP growth, which we still think... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) A slowdown in the monthly pace of price growth suggests that the CoreLogic index is finally falling back into line with other measures. After the rapid acceleration at the start of the year, we expect... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's equity gyrations not such a big deal for commodities The slump in equity prices in China has damaged confidence in global commodity markets, including oil and especially industrial metals. However, we think that the current negativity is overdone. While... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Time to let Greece go? While Greece and its creditors look set to make one last attempt to reach an agreement, it might very soon be time to accept the inevitable and refocus efforts on how best to manage the country’s exit... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks tread water in June Exchange stocks of some base metals are at very low levels and could be a factor boosting prices later in the year. However, stocks of copper and aluminium, in particular, remain high and will act as... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production figures provided further reassurance that the economic recovery managed to gather pace in the second quarter despite the stronger pound and euro-zone debt crisis. 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EMBI+ junk bonds? There is a chance that Ukraine’s foreign currency bonds could perform well in the months ahead if the government can secure a deal with its creditors, but a continuation of unorthodox policy making... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in food inflation should prove fleeting Inflation is likely to have picked up in June. The knee-jerk response may be to link it to the monsoon, but the rise in headline inflation is due more to the collapse in food prices a year ago... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s German industrial production figures supported other evidence suggesting that the euro-zone’s main growth engine is unlikely to have picked up speed in Q2. 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary Industrial Production (May) The sharp slowdown in industrial production growth in both the Czech Republic and Hungary in May was distorted by working day effects. The underlying trend is one ofsteady growth in industry of around... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lower dollar won't prevent further RBA rate cuts Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the second month in a row today and did not provide a clear hint that more cuts lie ahead, we still... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish exports to struggle despite weaker krona Sweden’s exporters are finally starting to feel the benefits of the krona’s decline over the past couple of years. But firms’ desire to widen profit margins, weak global demand and uncertainty about... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy unlikely to rebound from oil slump The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey shows that not only is the fallout from the slump in oil prices still taking a heavy toll on the economy, but the pick-up in non-energy sectors... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
