India Data Response Industrial Production (May) The weakening of India’s industrial production in May reinforces our view that, despite recent signs of recovery, the sector continues to face significant headwinds. 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would OMTs contain post-Grexit contagion? If a Greek exit from the euro-zone resulted in substantial market turmoil, the ECB would probably respond by unleashing its fabled OMTs. This is a potentially powerful tool to limit contagion. But... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity sell-off is a Chinese, not EM, phenomenon Despite a rebound in recent days, Chinese equities have slumped since the middle June. Still, the Shanghai Composite is some 90% higher than a year ago, and there is little sign that the sell-off has... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will changes to the planning system give a boost to housebuilding? If giving automatic planning permission to brownfield land helps boost competition in the housebuilding sector, it has the potential to raise housing starts. But encouraging construction on brownfield... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Property price bubbles a threat Property in both Hong Kong and Taiwan looks significantly overvalued. A slump in prices is one of the major risks for these economies over the coming year. 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen starts to restrain import volumes Almost three years after the yen started its steep fall, there is still little evidence of any boost to export volumes. Instead, a weaker exchange rate has mostly improved the non-energy trade balance... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Jun.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that although crudepalm oil production declined in June, it was still 12% higher y/y. Inventories alsoremain significantly higher on a... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (May) The rebound in French and Italian industrial production in May came as a welcome relief after Q2’s weak start and the disappointing German data earlier in the week. But across the euro-zone as a whole... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (May) Good news on the trade deficit in May was tempered by signs the construction sector’s recovery is struggling to get back on track. But since both sets of statistics are erratic, we would caution... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports (Apr.) US silver imports rose sharply in April, suggesting strong appetite from the second biggest consumer. Indeed, the US Mint ran out of coins last week as investors bought on falling prices. However, a... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the lower dollar prevent further rate cuts? Since the recent sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars is being driven by the deteriorating economic outlook for each economy, the depreciating currencies are unlikely to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why stock market gyrations don’t affect consumption With only a small and relatively wealthy portion of Chinese households exposed to the stock market, we aren’t particularly concerned about the impact of recent big falls in equity prices on... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation data from Mexico contain no signs that a weaker peso is fuelling price pressures. With inflation still below target, policymakers have room to keep interest rates low even if the Fed... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will new capital requirements halt the fall in mortgage spreads? More stringent capital requirements on lenders will raise the cost of funding, which other things equal will be passed onto customers through higher mortgage interest rate spreads. But we estimate... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
