Commodities Update Sales of China’s cotton stocks to push prices lower The price of cotton has been one of the better performing among agricultural commodities this year. However, we think prices are likely to fall as China seeks to sell its huge cotton reserves. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why have house prices in Wales been so weak? Comparatively loose supply conditions appear to explain why house prices in Wales have underperformed the rest of the country over the past year or two. But there are signs that demand is now... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update The wait for signs of renewed vigour in Brussels offices goes on Subdued economic growth and similarly weak office sector demand have resulted in muted take-up volumes in Brussels. The slow first half of the year means that we have trimmed our rental growth... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran and the West make a deal, but stumbling blocks remain Today’s announcement of the deal reached between Iran and the West should, eventually, allow Iranian oil exports to return to their previous levels. However, the deal could still be disrupted by... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico oil auctions: what to look for and what they mean Mexico’s government will tomorrow auction rights to private companies to exploit oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico – a move that marks the first step in opening up the country’s energy sector to... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek “deal” still has major hurdles to clear While yesterday’s announcement of an agreement to provide Greece with a third bailout was greeted with understandable relief, there are still very big hurdles to be cleared before the deal is... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) & German ZEW (Jul.) May’s weak industrial production data and the fall in German ZEW investor sentiment in July suggested that the euro-zone’s fragile recovery may be slowing. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The seemingly inexorable rise of Nigerian inflation – which reached a 28 month high of 9.2% y/y in June – will add to the pressure on the central bank to raise interes trates later this year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates before the end of the year With inflation still well above target, today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave its main policy rate on hold at 7.50% was no great surprise. While we think rates will stay on hold in the... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s consumer prices figures showed that the UK is continuing to benefit from a period of very low inflation brought on by lower energy and import prices. There are still no signs that low inflation... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting the impact of Iran’s nuclear deal on the Middle East The long-awaited announcement that Iran has secured an agreement over its nuclear programme will have implications for the wider Middle East. In short, the economic impact is likely to be small... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate below zero in June vindicated the Riksbank’s decision earlier this month to cut its policy rate further and extend its bond-buying programme. But we think... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) June’s BRC retail sales figures suggest that consumer spending made another chunky contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. What’s more, rising real incomes and strong confidence should... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation was broadly unchanged in June, remaining firmly in negative territory and close to its lowest rate since the series began. Importantly, core inflation fell further, pointing... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) Headline credit growth slowed again last month, but the data are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange reserves hints at... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Still stuck in a rut The slowdown in EM growth should bottom out over the second half of this year, but we don’t foresee a significant rebound in 2016-17. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
