US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales reach eight-year high Housing activity has strengthened in recent months. Indeed, gains in both new and existing home sales in May pushed total sales up to their highest level in eight years. Strong growth in jobs and... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can the consumer recovery survive a renewed fiscal squeeze? The Summer Budget confirmed that consumers face an imminent ramping-up of the fiscal squeeze. But there are still reasons to remain optimistic that the recovery in spending won’t be derailed. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (May) After a strong start to the year, South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell substantially in May. This underpins our view that continued power disruptions, coupled with an increased... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Greece, China and the spillovers to EMs Recent events in China and Greece have generated plenty of gloomy headlines about the spillovers to emerging markets but so far the reaction in EM markets has been relatively limited. One reason could... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal squeeze to weigh on growth for years to come There are signs that the slump in the Russian economy is now close to bottoming out. However, we think that when the recovery does come, it is likely to be extremely weak at best. One reason for this... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Credit growth remains strong by past standards, and there are some signs that households’ appetite for borrowing has strengthened. We therefore think that household and corporate debt will continue to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt & Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month, to 11.4% y/y, confirmed that May’s surprise jump was a one-off. And with the headline rate likely to fall further in July, we think interest rate cuts... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal tweaks not big enough to prompt MPC hike this year Despite the Chancellor’s decision to smooth the fiscal squeeze in yesterday’s Budget, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to continue to keep interest rates on hold until next year... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ethanol demand in Brazil to support sugar price Rising ethanol output in Brazil to meet domestic demand should help lift the price of sugar this year. We forecast the benchmark price at end-year at 13.5 US cents per pound, up from 12.3 cents today. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (June) The number of unsold homes has fallen to a record low in June, as sales continue to outpace the number of homes being listed for sale. Combined with signals that the economy is in good shape, we... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global imbalances? The fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the US dollar will cause global imbalances to widen over the coming years. China’s surplus could rise up the political agenda once more while the euro... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jun) Non-mainstream sectors took centre stage in another bumper month for property investment in June. Six deals involving petrol stations, hotels, leisure and student housing accounted for half of the £8... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France's economic recovery will continue to disappoint The French economy’s decent start to 2015 is unlikely to have been sustained in Q2. Looking further ahead, we think that the recovery will struggle to gain significant pace over the next few years. In... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jun.) The small rise in Czech headline and core inflation in June provides early evidence that the recent labour market improvements and the strength of domestic demand are starting to feed through to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Although the recent softening in global commodity prices helped pull down producer price inflation last month, today’s data still suggest that domestic price pressures are rising and that deflation... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
