Africa Economics Update South Africa: Faltering consumer will drag on growth The dramatic fall in South Africa’s consumer confidence index in Q2 provides yet another sign that consumer spending growth will slow over the course of the year. This is a particularly worrying... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Higher rates will not derail the housing recovery The recent strength of housing activity suggests the market is well placed to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, with credit conditions gradually loosening and affordability very... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in sales won’t spark property revival Strong sales and rebounding prices have raised hopes that China’s property sector is on the cusp of a turnaround. But those expecting a return to the rapid rates of construction growth seen over the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling devaluations & UK equities – implications for Greece If Greece does abandon the euro, our expectation is that it would not be long before her stock market started to boom. This is tied to our belief that devaluation is essential to revitalise Greece’s... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will GDP growth ever hit 3% again? As things stand now, GDP is on track for a 2.3% increase this year, which would be very similar to the growth rates achieved in 2012, 2013 and 2014. It appears that GDP growth is stuck in a rut. It is... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates expanding steadily Broad measures of the money supply are increasing at a decent pace in the major advanced economies, suggesting at face value that the global economic recovery remains on track. The biggest change over... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 223,000 increase in payroll employment in June was a bit weaker than we had been expecting, but is offset to some degree by the fall in the unemployment rate, to 5.3% from 5.5%. As such, we still... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do July’s utility price hikes mean for Russian inflation? Utility tariffs for Russian households and businesses were raised at the start of this month, fuelling concerns in some quarters that this could trigger a renewed pick-up in inflation. But the key... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 0.6% m/m increase in Brazil industrial production in May supports the message from last month’s PMI (released yesterday) that the economy could be nearing a bottom. We wouldn’t get too carried... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable are Emerging European property markets to a Grexit? Emerging European financial markets have generally shrugged off the announcement of a Greek referendum. Yet while there are reasons to believe that Emerging Europe is less exposed to Grexit risks than... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Has demand for coal burned out? The use of coal has become increasingly frowned upon in recent years with regions which account for 75% of demand actively trying to move away from the fuel and an increasing number of supranational... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank boosts stimulus to weaken krona Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its monetary policy stimulus to protect the nascent uptrend in inflation and fight the recent strengthening of the krona. But with the upward pressure on the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jun.) The latest CIPS/Markit construction PMI shows that supply in the commercial property sector is now rising at its fastest rate since 2008. But with most evidence also suggesting that availability is... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Reforms will help Italian banks crawl back to health Recent reforms will help Italy’s fragile banking system. But a legacy of bad debts and the earlier tightening of lending standards will weigh on the country’s recovery for a while yet. 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1) The pick-up in Saudi GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, to 2.4% y/y, was supported by a rebound in the oil sector and robust activity in the non-oil sector. These data confirm our view that... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
