Europe Economics Update Will Greece finally blink? Greece’s creditors have made it clear that the ball is firmly in its court to make the concessionsneeded to reach a last-minute agreement. But even if Greece finally blinks, the stop-gap deal that... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African budgets boost investment, keep fiscal deficits wide East African governments’ focus on infrastructure spending will provide a boost for growth, but fiscal deficits in Kenya and Uganda are likely to remain a concern. Revenue projections rely on... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oil sector slowdown means Oslo office rental growth will disappoint There are now concrete signs that the slowdown in the Norwegian oil industry is beginning to feed through to the wider economy. As a result, we expect the upwards trend in Oslo office market rents to... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Construction Output (Apr.) The latest construction output figures supported our judgement that the economic recovery has had more pace than recent GDP estimates had indicated. Given the broad-based strength of the business... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s weak growth in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the boost to industry from the lower oil price and euro at the start of the year may already be fizzling out. 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Abenomics working after all? The jump in output in Q1 and, over a longer period, rapid growth in the number of people available for work are signs that Abenomics is starting to have an impact. However, the economy likely slowed... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers in Chile and Peru likely to hold fire until 2016 Interest rates in Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and with both economies in the early stages of recovery, policymakers are likely to delay rate hikes until next year, even if the Fed... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for New Zealand interest rates and the dollar? The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 3.25% leaves our prediction that rates will be 3.0% by the end of the year on track and has helped achieve one of our other... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation remains high The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged today, but we expect a rate cut later in the year, despite the recent pick-up in inflation. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the “Grexit” threat to Eastern Europe The clock is ticking for Greece to unlock much-needed funding and stay in the euro-zone. And if it fails and were to leave the single currency, the impact of this wouldn’t be felt in Greece alone. In... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Investment won’t drive a strong euro-zone recovery The euro-zone’s fledgling economic upturn has so far been driven largely by the short-term boost to consumer spending from lower oil prices and weak inflation. If it is to be sustained, the biggest... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.) South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell slightly m/m in April but has returned to pre-strike levels. While this could adversely impact platinum and palladium prices in the short... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The slowdown in annual industrial production growth in Mexico in April was due overwhelmingly to a renewed downturn in the mining sector. In contrast, there are tentative signs that the manufacturing... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weather risks to take centre stage for crop prices While global grain and soybean markets remain well-supplied, prices are likely to be determined by weather-related factors over the coming months. Nevertheless, we believe that the medium-term price... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
