Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (May.) The 42,000 gain in Australian employment in May will no doubt add to claims that Australia’s economy has weathered the end of the mining boom well. However, the reading almost certainly exaggerates... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May. 15) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local government debt swap doubled Today’s doubling of the quota for local government debt swaps indicates that the central government believes the programme has so far been a success, even if banks have only been buying the new bonds... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks fell sharply last week, registering the largest weekly decline since July last year. This was in contrast to the previous three weeks of data which had suggested the pace of the... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America & Fed tightening: risks revisited Several economies in Latin America have large current account deficits that could leave them vulnerable as and when the Fed starts to raise interest rates. The risks in Brazil are, by now, well known... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece leave the euro without also leaving the EU? Whether Greece exits the euro, and whether it can leave the single currency while remaining a member of the European Union (EU), will depend on economic, market and political realities rather than... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for September lift-off With the incoming data now showing a clear pick-up in real economic growth and possible signs of an acceleration in wage growth and core price inflation, we expect the Fed to begin hiking interest... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Demand for gilts weakens despite soft economic news Gilt yields have risen further over the last month despite the news that the UK has experienced deflation and the deterioration of some recent economic growth indicators. Their rise may partly reflect... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Trade agreement promising, but no immediate impact Media coverage of Africa’s “Tripartite Free Trade Agreement” has exaggerated the pact’s effect on economic integration, which will be limited by piecemeal implementation and crumbling infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production boosted by surging Iraqi output Last month’s small increase in supply from OPEC just adds to the glut of oil already in the market and underlines the cartel’s commitment not to cut output just to support prices in the short term. 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.5% y/y last month was driven entirely by an increase in food inflation as well as regulated price hikes. Meanwhile, the infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (May) Data released today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that crude palm oil production continued to grow in May, albeit at a slower pace than the previous two months, while inventories hit their highest... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki begins hiking cycle Iceland’s central bank raised its main interest rates by 50bp today, as expected, in what looks likely to be the beginning of a tightening cycle designed to counter strong domestic demand growth and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Consumers stifled by banking sector and labour market woes Indian consumers have struggled in recent months despite the tailwinds of lower inflation and reductions in interest rates. This can be explained in part by continued problems in the labour market and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Optimism over opening up of Saudi’s stock market seems overdone The move by Saudi Arabia to open up its stock market to foreign investors from next week is a step in the right direction. But, as we explain in this Watch, we think some of the optimism about its... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
