US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.2% m/m gain in May's retail sales may have been a bit below our own 1.5% forecast, but the underlying details of the report are actually a lot stronger than we were expecting. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (May) Offices accounted for the lion’s share of UK commercial property investment activity in May, and drove almost half of the increase from April. However, it was also notable that investor appetite for... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Apr.) Mining and manufacturing output figures released today showed that growth remained weak in two key sectors of the South African economy. And the spectre of wage disputes suggests that the mining... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have D.C. home prices hit a wall? Negative house price growth in D.C. in the first quarter is a worrying development given that the economy has underperformed and housing looks highly overvalued. This doesn’t necessarily signal the... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: UK to exit deflation after just a month May’s inflation figures should show that deflation in the UK lasted for just a month. Admittedly, this would not mean that the risk of a prolonged period of low inflation has suddenly disappeared... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can time save Greece? Greece’s latest proposals to its creditors reportedly include plans to cover its financing needs until March next year. But with its economic and fiscal position more likely to worsen than improve in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) An improvement in most of the key activity and spending indicators for May suggests that recent policy support measures are seeing some early success in shoring up economic activity. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Headline credit growth continued to slow last month, but the latest figures are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May) Rising consumer confidence has yet to entice higher numbers of existing homeowners to move, and consequently the number of homes for sale has dropped to its lowest level in over 35 years. With housing... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged up to 2.1% y/y in May, but price pressures are still subdued. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we expect this to remain the case for the... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Apr.) Even though Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in April, the bigger picture is that it remains large. And the composition of external financing is a key vulnerability, with foreign direct... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rates may eventually fall below 3% While today's interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), to 3.25% from 3.50%, came a bit earlier than we expected, towards the start of the year we were one of the few analysts... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update MERS threat triggers rate cut in Korea, further cuts difficult The Bank of Korea (BoK) today cut its policy rate to a new record low of 1.50% amid growing economic risks from the recent outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). But the hurdle for... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities diminishing India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, along with the pick-up in net FDI inflows, this has helped to boost the overall balance of payments position to its largest surplus since 2008. With... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
