Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty adds to an already ugly picture in Turkey The loss by Turkey’s AK Party of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 makes President Erdogan’s desire to change the constitution to strengthen the presidency a pipe dream and... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (May) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that activity in the manufacturing sector slowed sharply in the second quarter. 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May.) Foreign demand still looks subdued, despite a stronger-than-expected recovery in export growth. Meanwhile, a fall in commodity import volumes disappoints hopes that recent policy support measures... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Monsoon threat to inflation overplayed Inflation is likely to have stayed subdued in May. There are rising concerns that a weaker-than-normal monsoon could push inflation up in the months ahead. But we remain sanguine: many factors in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) & Current Account (Apr.) While revised data showed that Q1 GDP expanded even more strongly than initially estimated, a slowdown in Q2 looks likely. 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter rebound unlikely to be convincing After a dismal turn in the first quarter of the year, the economy should perform somewhat better in the second quarter, but the pace of growth is likely to be unspectacular. With growth of no more... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Ending Iceland’s capital controls not yet a done deal The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ample supply to cap oil prices Commodity prices have remained under pressure from continued dollar strength, although supply concerns in the past week have supported some agriculturals – notably wheat and coffee. US lumber prices... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fact that the economy generated a surprisingly strong 58,900 jobs in May suggests that it is holding up against the oil price shock better than we had expected. This supports the Bank of Canada... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish elections won’t alter fiscal outlook Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Can gold buck the trends of rising yields and dollar strength? In the short term it is often hard for the price of gold to decouple from movements in US bond and currency markets – as the initially negative reaction to today’s strong US payrolls report has once... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Another strong jobs report tees up the FOMC for a September hike 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Back from the dead? The news last week that first-quarter productivity slumped while unit labour costs soared should be viewed with some scepticism, since the non-farm business sector figures are distorted by the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, which was well above the 225,000 consensus forecast but bang in line with our own call, adds to the evidence that the US economy is regaining momentum... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC ensures oil supplies to remain ample It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today. Oil prices even ticked up a little on the news as late speculation of an increase in the target proved unfounded. Nonetheless... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink Greece’s decision to emulate Zambia and bundle its June IMF payments has allowed another “make or break” moment to pass without either. But the continued divergences between the country and its... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
