Global Economics Update Monetary conditions loose despite rise in yields Although both sovereign and corporate bond yields in advanced economies rose in early May, they remain low by past standards. And with most central banks likely to maintain ultra-loose policy this... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking bailout funds no substitute for Greek debt relief The mooted reallocation of unused banking bailout funds could boost the amount of cash provided to Greece in a forthcoming deal with its creditors and hence buy it some valuable additional time. But... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (May) & OECD Ec. Outlook The unexpected fall in May’s Markit/CIPS report on services shows that the economic recovery is still a bit fragile. However, there are no obvious reasons why the economy should be seeing a sustained... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) Underlying house price growth picked-up in May according to the Nationwide, as a slow recovery in housing demand has run up against very low levels of homes for sale. We expect that demand will... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) The latest ‘whole economy’ PMIs from the MENA region continue to suggest that the Gulf economies are holding up well in the face of low oil prices. However, the boost to Saudi Arabia’s economy from... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) & Hungary Retail Sales (Apr.) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 8.1% y/y, was driven by a pick-up in core price pressures and provides further evidence that the economy’s inflation problems are escalating. Elsewhere... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: shilling weakness no cause for panic The recent weakness of the Kenyan shilling is not, as some local media has alleged, the first sign of an impending balance of payments crisis. The shilling will probably continue to depreciate, but... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PMIs pointing to lacklustre activity India's May PMI readings for both the manufacturing and services sectors suggest that activity remains subdued by past standards. The PMIs add to the list of indicators that contradict the official... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia's economy grew at a very healthy rate in the first quarter, which will probably prompt some suggestions that it has weathered last year's fall in commodity prices well. We think the worst is... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen falls to 13-year low against the US-dollar The diverging prospects for monetary policy in Japan and the US have resulted in a renewed weakening of the yen in recent weeks. With price pressures set to remain subdued, we think that the Bank of... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to modest signs of improvement May’s manufacturing PMIs brought the first signs that the recent slump in manufacturing across the emerging world may be bottoming out. But there remain huge differences in performance. May’s... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update How helpful are the US weekly oil production data? US weekly production figures have been distorted in the last two weeks by pipeline shutdowns and statistical revisions, but they can still offer some insight into trends in US oil production. 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that most of the peripheral countries made fiscal progress at the start of Q2, after a mixed performance in Q1. But Greece’s position is still looking... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The CoreLogic index continues to show a rapid acceleration in house price inflation. But downward revisions to previous data, as well as the recent weakness in consumer spending, mean we are inclined... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) We’re running out of words to describe just how bad conditions are in Brazil’s industrial sector. The fall in production in April means that industry has now contracted in five of the past six months... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
