Japan Economics Weekly Who benefits from the recovery in national income? Households have benefitted less from the plunge in energy prices and the surge in overseas investment income than other sectors. With wage growth set to remain subdued, we think that consumer spending... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are policymakers pushing on a string? The failure of policy loosening over the past six months to stimulate an economic rebound has led some to suggest that elevated real interest rates or oppressive debt burdens are hobbling corporate... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The markets don’t care whether Australia is AAA or AA It is possible that at some point in the next couple of years, Australia will lose its AAA credit rating. While this would be a huge blow for whichever political party is in power at the time, it... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Apr.) With economic activity sluggish and price pressures subdued despite a tighter labour market, we remain convinced that the Bank of Japan will have to step up the pace of easing before too long. 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1 15) Swiss GDP data for Q1 probably exaggerate the true hit to exports from the appreciation of the franc. But with the currency likely to remain at a very high level, the economy is set to expand only... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q1 15) The slowdown in Swedish GDP growth in Q1 came as little surprise after its sharp rise in Q4. But although the economy is still expanding, the breakdown was less than encouraging. Together with the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market appears to be strengthening Our econometric model points to a 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May and we also expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 5.3%. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s US data provide mixed signals, with stocks of crude oil falling and demand from refineries increasing, but production rising sharply. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Apr.) A fall in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in April has been more than offset by higher imports of the metal by India. Hence, we believe fears of a slowdown in demand from key emerging... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Which EM currencies are misaligned? The Peterson Institute for International Economics is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates soon. These are likely to suggest that the Turkish lira... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown shows no sign of abating The slowdown across emerging markets is showing no sign of easing, with our latest GDP Tracker suggesting that growth is now running at 3.7% y/y – its lowest rate since September 2009. Much of the... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Non-European investors will continue to determine pricing dynamics Non-Europeans are playing an increasingly important role in driving property investment volumes in Europe. The weaker euro and reports that non-Europeans tend to have lower target returns suggests... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Deflation and overseas risks to keep rate rise at bay Since June’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comes just three weeks after the publication of the latest Inflation Report and recent data have not challenged its view that inflation will... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Environmental concerns to drag down coal but boost gas prices Environmental issues are becoming increasingly important drivers of demand for, and supply of, all types of energy commodities. We continue to expect demand for coal to be most negatively impacted... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Equities weaken, bond yields rise Financial markets in Emerging Europe have generally performed poorly over the past month, with equities having dropped back and the region’s bonds having been hit by the sell-off in developed... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
