Global Economics Focus What happened to the oil windfall? So far this year, households in advanced economies do not seem to have been spending their windfall from lower oil prices. However, this is partly because they stepped up their consumption late last... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (May) May’s rise in German HICP inflation mainly reflected an anticipated increase in the energy component – underlying price pressures remain very weak even in the euro-zone’s strongest economies. 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: potential outcomes and market implications Fears ahead of Turkey’s parliamentary election on 7th June have centred on the risk of a dominant and increasingly authoritarian AK Party under President Erdogan , but in another twist to the plot the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak yen not to blame for Korean export woes Subdued global demand, rather than the strength of the Korean won against the Japanese yen is to blame for the poor recent performance of Korean exports. 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Apr.) According to the Land Registry a strong gain in house prices during April broadly offset a similar fall in March. With the stock of homes for sale at an historic low, the conditions are in place for... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) May’s South African manufacturing PMI reading of 50.8 was a rare piece of positive news for the country, which has seen a run of dispiriting economic figures. Even so, this figure is consistent with a... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (May) May’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing provided further evidence that the economic recovery is extremely dependent on the services sector at present. 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s batch of manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the slump in the Russian economy has deepened in the second quarter. But the surveys finally brought some... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May.) Today's PMI readings suggest that although external demand remains weak, an uptick in domestic demand – likely the result of recent policy support – is now helping to ease downward pressure on growth... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q1) The Ministry of Finance’s survey on corporate finances suggests that business investment was stronger last quarter than initially estimated. 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower loonie's influence on core inflation waning While headline inflation has fallen sharply due to lower energy prices, the boost to core inflation from the lower Canadian dollar may fade sooner than most realise. Wholesale price inflation, which... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch More QE and policy divergence on the cards Two themes are likely to dominate global monetary policy over the next couple of years. First, policy in advanced economies in aggregate looks set to remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ persist with... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength weighs on commodities (again) Commodity prices mostly fell in the past week, dragged lower by renewed strength in the US currency. Leading the falls, natural gas prices reversed their weather-related gains from earlier in the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is real GDP really mis-measured? The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming. The same skewed pattern appears to have repeated itself this year too, with the 0.7% contraction in GDP... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Anaemic Chinese import growth weighs on prices China’s trade data for April go some way to explaining the generally weak tone of agricultural commodities prices. For the most part, import volumes were lower in year-on-year terms, in some cases... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
