Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Solid outlook for returns despite a handful of downgrades The non-euro-zone economies and property markets have generally started the year positively. We expect further improvement in GDP growth in most countries to support expansionary occupier demand, with... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values look set for their strongest annual gain since the crisis Compared to our last Analyst, we have moved up our rental growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016, reflecting limited development pipelines and upgrades to our macroeconomic forecasts. The rental upgrade... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Rise in oil prices has eased risk of deflation The rebound in global oil prices since January means it is all but certain that headline inflation in advanced economies will pick up sharply towards the end of the year. For most countries, this has... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forget the primary surplus, Greece’s debt is unsustainable The focus on the precise targets for the primary budget surplus in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors overlooks the fact that, unless the economy experiences a miracle, its debt ratio... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: faltering tourism sector deals blow to economy Declining tourist numbers pose yet another threat to South Africa’s already beleaguered economy. And the impact of onerous new visa regulations are likely to make the situation even worse. 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this really the start of a bear market in Bunds? Although the yields of German Bunds have risen significantly since late-April, we doubt they will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The drop in Russian inflation to 15.8% y/y in May confirms that it has now passed its peak. We expect inflation to ease slowly over the next three to six months before falling sharply around the turn... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why we are positive on copper prices Copper demand is set to pick up strongly later in the year as US economic activity rebounds and policy loosening in China lifts demand there. Meanwhile, subdued mine supply growth will curb refined... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation risks to keep MPC on hold throughout 2015 With the UK in deflation, growth indicators turning south and the Greek saga casting a shadow over the outlook, the MPC’s decision to keep interest rates on hold is likely to have been unanimous again... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the government stop the yen from weakening further? Several commentators have expressed unease about yen weakness, with some even arguing that the government may intervene if the ongoing slide persists. But a weaker yen is a key transmission channel in... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian households will be slow to feel recovery Italy’s economy looks set to grow again in Q2. But households there will remain under enormous pressure for the foreseeable future, which has implications for the strength of the recovery and support... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (May) The slight fall in house prices in May reported by the Halifax doesn’t alter the bigger picture that prices are under steady upwards pressure. With very few homes for sale and the mortgage market... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Finland GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP data confirmed that Finland’s economy is still in the doldrums. While we think that growth will pick up later in the year, Finland is likely to be among the euro-zone’s weakest economies in... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the boom in car sales run out of gas? The recovery in car sales has lost momentum this year despite the fact that the cost of credit is about as cheap as it can get. But the healthy outlook for households’ incomes, the low level of oil... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf countries likely to stand firm at this week’s OPEC meeting This week’s OPEC meeting is likely to see the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, once again shrug off calls from some of the cartel’s smaller members to cut oil production in order to shore up oil... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates; attention now turns to Inflation Report The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 13.75% was expected, but the fact that the accompanying statement was left unchanged from the last... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
