Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Apr.) The smaller-than-expected increase in Chile’s IMACEC activity indicator in April was almost entirely due to severe floods in the north of the country. Sharp falls in mining and construction, caused by... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors become more bearish on agriculturals Over the past month investor sentiment towards agricultural commodities has continued to deteriorate. After turning negative in April, the total number of net-long non-commercial positions for eight... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in German Bund yields unlikely to last Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What scope does Osborne have to smooth the cuts? Given the rollercoaster profile for government spending inherited from the coalition, there is clear scope for the Government to smooth the fiscal consolidation more evenly over this parliament... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would constitute a Greek default? At first sight, the concept of a sovereign default appears straightforward: a government either pays its debt, or it does not. But on closer inspection the picture is more blurred. For example, Greece... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the surge in leisure spending mean for property? The surge in leisure services spending shown in the latest data is not as positive for the broader leisure sector as it first appears. Nevertheless, after tracking sideways for the past six years, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Greek debt plan does not reduce exit risks Greece’s new plan for “debt management and investment-led growth” is a much-needed attempt to look beyond the completion of the current bailout and find a more permanent resolution to the crisis. But... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would the Philippines look like without Aquino? With just one year to go before presidential elections in the Philippines, attention is turning to who will replace the current president, Benigno Aquino. The current president deserves much credit... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of the renewed weakening of the yen? We remain convinced that a weaker yen is needed to boost demand, lift inflation and put the public finances on a sustainable path. As long as the exchange rate continues to weaken gradually rather... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Labour market reform: can Mr Modi learn lessons from the states? Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s first year in power, but there are signs of improvement at state level, most notably... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures on the rise A seasonal slide in vegetable prices that should prove short-lived may have pulled inflation down in May. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to have picked up. We expect... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy will soon run out of puff While the Australian economy may have shot out of blocks at the start of the year, there are good reasons to think that it will soon run out of puff. Indeed, April’s data suggest that the boosts to... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish elections won’t alter fiscal outlook Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Strong US auto sales to boost PGMs demand We believe the prices of platinum group metals (PGMs) will benefit from increased autocatalyst demand. However, palladium is likely to outperform platinum due to the limited penetration of diesel cars... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
