Global Markets Focus Will lower profit margins derail the US stock market? A tenet of the bear case for US equities is that the aggregate profit margin of the US corporate sector is extremely high and that it will inevitably revert to its long-run average, thereby derailing... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property & CIPS construction (Apr./May) The stock of commercial property debt rose marginally in April, ending a run of 27consecutive monthly contractions. The data thus echo the recent DeMontfortfindings which suggest that the property... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: IMF still the best option, but a deal seems unlikely for now Reports in the Egyptian media that the government is set to open discussions on a $6bn financing package with the IMF are likely to prove premature. For now, the authorities seem content to undertake... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation will offer some relief to the ECB, but with underlying price pressures still very weak and the recovery seemingly slowing, strong monetary policy support will be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) Growth in household borrowing is beginning to strengthen in response to record-low lending rates and high levels of confidence. And since this revival is coming from a low base and household incomes... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchase jumped 10% m/m in April, their biggest monthly rise since the start of 2009. A strong labour market and record low mortgage... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal unlikely to tackle debt mountain Last night’s meeting between Greece’s creditors may have been an important step towards reaching a proposal to release the country’s final bailout payment. But the risk of failure is still high and... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Gabon: Low oil prices pose lasting economic challenge Growth in oil-rich Gabon is highly dependent on government spending, and low oil prices are causing a painful fiscal crunch that is dampening economic activity. Faltering economic expansion will... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rate-cutting cycle has a little further to run Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the repo rate for the third time this year to 7.25% is unlikely to be the last in the current loosening cycle. But the RBI can't be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakening outlook will prompt RBA to act again We suspect that today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% is nothing more than a pause in the loosening cycle that could yet result in rates... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) We wouldn’t read too much into the rebound in wage growth in April. In fact, we think that labour costs will continue to grow far too slowly to create broad-based price pressure. 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Strong dollar and ample supply weigh on prices R enewed strength in the US currency undermined most commodity prices again last month, with ample supply dragging down crude oil and many agricultural too. Lingering concerns over the risk of a “hard... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing surveys show steady growth in May Final manufacturing surveys for May, published by Markit today, provide some reassurance that global growth should continue at a respectable pace this year. Among the advanced economies, prospects... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMI (May) May’s manufacturing PMIs from Latin America make for pretty gloomy reading, with the headline indices in both Brazil and Mexico edging down. It’s worth noting that neither series has been a... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The modest improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to 52.8 in May, from 51.5, puts it at a level that historically has been consistent with GDP growth of around 2%. Accordingly, even though the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
