Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth won’t halt rise in Spain’s debt ratio Spain’s economy continues to go from strength to strength and could well grow by more than 3% this year. But with the large amount of spare capacity set to keep inflation negative or low, and growing... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update End of bull market in Chinese equities would help gold The lure of a soaring stock market has surely dampened Chinese investors’ demand for gold. Correspondingly, even though we are not predicting an imminent crash, the precious metal should benefit when... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The unexpected 0.6% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP suggests that the Bank of Canada's single 25 basis point rate cut in January may not have been enough insurance against the oil price slump... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities on a rollercoaster This month ended with a crash on China’s stock markets. But if the equity bubble of 2007 is any guide, this may not be the end of the speculative rally. 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) At face value, today’s GDP data for Q1 suggest that India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world. But the GDP data remain wildly inconsistent with numerous other indicators that point to... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) Brazil’s economy contracted in Q1, but the decline was smaller than expected thanks to a large positive contribution from net exports. With the news from the real economy not quite as grim as had been... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies fall, bond yields rise Most currencies sold off against the US dollar in May. Meanwhile, the region’s bond markets have settled down in recent weeks, after being briefly caught up in the global bond market sell-off earlier... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian growth eases in Q1 despite lower oil prices Growth in Emerging Asia eased slightly last quarter, despite the boost from lower oil prices. Weak exports haven’t helped, but it has been the reluctance of consumers to spend their windfall from... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q2) May’s IPF Consensus survey shows that most forecasters now recognise that the commercial property market has more momentum than they previously thought. Yet despite the latest upgrades, we suspect... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Are low tin prices justified? Base metals prices have struggled since the start of this year, but many have still managed to make modest gains. In contrast, tin prices have fallen. In this Metals & Mining Watch , we discuss the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that the region’s economic recovery will continue. But the continued lack of an agreement between Greece and its creditors poses a significant risk to the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Encouraging signs beneath Q1 weakness Last week ended with a general sense of relative pessimism, following the lack of the expected upgrade to Q1’s GDP figure and the news that net trade was a big drag on the economy. But we are not too... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: how to judge a Buhari presidency The inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari this morning was met with widespread optimism in Nigeria, but the 72-year old must act quickly if he is to retain the political momentum and make serious... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Swedish GDP growth in Q1 came as little surprise after its sharp rise in Q4. But although the economy is still expanding, the breakdown was less than encouraging. Together with the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) While the composite index of the GfK consumer confidence survey softened in May, it remained at a high level by past standards and so still indicates that consumers are likely to spend virtually all... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1) Swiss GDP data for Q1 probably exaggerate the true hit to exports from the appreciation of the franc. But with the currency likely to remain at a very high level, the economy is set to expand only... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
