Africa Economics Focus Africa will struggle to capitalise on youthful demographics Sub-Saharan Africa’s youthful demographic profile is often cited as a potential engine of economic development, but we believe that this argument significantly overstates the economic benefits of... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (May) Despite a rebound in May, small business confidence still suggests that the economic recovery lacks vigour. 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the MSCI EM Asia Index? Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.) New home sales reversed much of the previous month’s decline in April. For now, this doesn’t seem to be exerting much upward pressure on price growth. Nonetheless, the conditions are in place for... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Window for further Hungarian rate cuts is closing 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The devil is in the detail of Chinese trade China’s detailed trade data for April paint a broadly positive picture of industrial metals demand. Meanwhile, the export surge associated with the Qingdao port scandal, as stocks were moved into more... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) April's durable goods figures confirm that, following the earlier disruption caused by the unseasonably cold weather in the Northeast and the West Coast port dispute, the factory sector was getting... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus China and the SDR: a storm in a basket It is only a matter of time before China passes another milestone as the renminbi is added to the basket of currencies which determine the value of the IMF’s special drawing right. However, we doubt... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) The very strong tone of the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the recovery in consumer spending gathered pace in the second quarter. And there are reasons to be optimistic about the... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today showing that economic growth in South Africa plummeted to 1.3% quarter on quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate are very bad news. Several temporary factors... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Law and Justice victory raises populism concerns in Poland Victory for Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice Party in Sunday’s Polish presidential election has raised concerns about a shift towards more populist policymaking and taken some of the shine off... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Finance Ministry puts ball back into Governor Rajan's court Signs of continued economic slack and the weakness of inflation are key reasons for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to resume its rate-cutting cycle in its upcoming policy review on 2 nd June. One... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1 Revised) Singapore’s economy grew faster than previously estimated in Q1, helped by a surge in construction activity. A pick-up in global growth after a weak start to the year should support Singapore’s... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA presses pause, not stop While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is highly likely to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2 nd June, we think it will cut rates further later this year. Our... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Pakistan repeating the same old mistakes? The aggressive series of rate cuts by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) over the last six months suggests that it may, once again, have become too complacent over the medium-term inflation outlook. 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
