China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May.) China’s flash PMI remains subdued. Nonetheless, the index's first improvement since February suggests that policymakers' efforts to shore up activity may finally be having the intended effect. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) While the rebound in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the sector is not doing as badly as we had feared, there is a long way to go to recoup the 4% fall in activity since January. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dollar divergence won’t last The recent divergence of the Australian and New Zealand dollars has been driven by swings in relative interest rate expectations, but we doubt it will be sustained. (See Chart below.) We think the... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices a challenge for key frontier markets Despite a recent rebound, low oil prices are posing a challenge for many frontier markets. Low oilprices were one factor that led the IMF to cut its 2015 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa, andwe... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch January interest rate cut likely not enough At next week's policy meeting we expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate at 0.75%. Tighter financial conditions over the past month, however, may have it second guessing whether or not the... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in US weekly oil stocks all but confirms that April’s highs marked the peak. What’s more, US oil production declined by the most significant amount in almost a year and demand picked... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A Greek deal might be coming, but it’s only a stop-gap While a deal to address Greece’s near-term financing needs might soon emerge, this will be merely a stop-gap. The main challenge of finding a lasting solution to Greece’s debt problems lies ahead. 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Mexico’s mining downturn First quarter GDP data from Mexico, due to be released tomorrow, are likely to show that the economy made a sluggish start to the year, due in large part to continued weakness in the mining sector... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Production cuts to spur aluminium price gains Aluminium demand is strong and stocks are falling, but overproduction continues to constrain prices. However, the ongoing fall in price premiums is hurting the profitability of both producers and... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (Apr.) The weakness of last month’s Polish industrial production and retail sales figures was disappointing, but the impact on overall GDP growth seems to have been partially offset by an improvement in the... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Retail figures point to weak first quarter for South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector faltered in March, supporting our view that GDP growth in the first quarter was a disappointing 2.0% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which currencies are fundamentally misaligned? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) soon. These are likely to suggest that... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC underplays inflation and current account concerns The press release accompanying today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. But we still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors still cautious, for now Over the past month, precious metal prices have posted decent gains, led by silver. While the technical outlook is improving, investor sentiment remains broadly bearish. This suggests further price... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
