US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts soared to a seven-year high in April, as homebuilding activity finally rebounded after the weak start to the year. Looking ahead, this should provide a platform for further steady... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB be happy with the first 10 weeks of QE? The ECB Governing Council has a right to be cautiously optimistic about the first ten weeks of QE. But we share its view that this does not mean that QE should end early. On the contrary, we think... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2015 Q1) Mortgage lending got off to a slow start in 2015, with advances for house purchase in the first quarter down by 9% on a year earlier. But there are signs that mortgage volumes are resuming their... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports raise questions over global demand Several factors help explain why the dollar value of exports from emerging markets fell sharply in March, including lower commodity prices, the strength of the US dollar and distortions in China’s... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply concerns overshadow dollar weakness Weakness in the US dollar and rising oil prices would normally be considered positive for agricultural commodity prices. However, despite a 3.5% fall in the value of the US currency and a 5% rise in... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (May) May’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that growing fears over Greece together with the recent rise in bond yields and appreciation of the euro exchange rate have damaged the economic... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The UK has finally joined other advanced economies in experiencing deflation. This is a positive development and the risk that deflation becomes ingrained and so starts to have adverse effects remains... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts before year-end likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold at 7.50%, but relaxed macro prudential policy in a bid to support the weak economy. We expect interest rates to be eased later in the year... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) March’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro has still had little impact on net exports, and therefore provided only modest support to the recovery. 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy strengthens as oil sector rebounds Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy strengthened further in March as the oil sector returned to growth and consumer spending remained buoyant. But we expect this rebound to fizzle out... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity markets stage a comeback Energy and industrial metals prices have risen strongly since the middle of April, buoyed by further weakness in the US dollar and improved investor sentiment. Crude oil prices have also been... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A favourable occupier market outlook The outlook for the commercial property market is favourable and the recovery is likely to be extended over the forecast horizon. Yields will play a role by continuing to edge down, but consistent... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a referendum end the Greek crisis? A public referendum could help to break the current deadlock between Greece and its creditors. But it might only be a short-term solution and much could depend on its precise purpose and phrasing. 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Divergence between capital and rental values set to widen Despite euro-zone all-property rents recording their strongest rise since 2007, it’s too soon to say that rental values have finally lifted off. Rather, with economic and employment growth set to... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal policy to be more supportive in coming quarters Policymakers are moving to ensure that funding difficulties don’t disrupt local government spending plans. This doesn’t constitute an about-turn in efforts to restrict off-budget borrowing, as some... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
