Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget hits ball back into the RBA’s court The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasurer appear to be playing tennis with the economy. RBA Governor Stevens has already cut interest rates to 2.0% and hinted that he would like fiscal policy to... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek IOUs may be the first step towards the exit With a bailout payment still not forthcoming, the Greek Government might have to resort to IOUs to pay public sector workers. While they could serve as a brief stop-gap, they would not solve Greece’s... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is a rise in Treasury yields a threat to the US stock market? We are sceptical that a further sell-off in Treasuries would drive the US stock market down, as some are suggesting. Although we forecast that the 10-year US government bond yield will continue to... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Q1 World Gold Council Demand Trends The World Gold Council depicts a broadly stable picture of the gold market in Q1 in its latest World Demand Trends report, published today. While jewellery demand fell by 3% y/y, investment demand... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Which commodities could be most affected by El Niño? An El Niño event does not automatically translate into higher commodity prices. Its impact on production and prices will largely depend on its strength and duration, as well as the prevailing... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling vulnerable to renewed dollar weakness Sterling has rallied to a six-month high against the US dollar, reflecting relief that the UK is not mired in a period of post-election political negotiations and some slightly less dovish noises from... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s Polish CPI data, which showed that consumer prices fell by 1.1% y/y compared with a drop of 1.5% y/y in March, should ease lingering concerns that deflation might become entrenched. But today... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices rebound as US production falters The big news over the last month has been the ongoing rise in oil prices. The price of Brent almost touched $70 per barrel in early May on news that US oil stocks had fallen and despite being volatile... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines in no rush to adjust monetary policy The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates on hold today. With the economy set to continue growing at a decent pace, the Philippines is unlikely to join in the region’s interest... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today, showing that growth in Nigeria slowed to 4.0% y/y, support our view that the economy will perform poorly in 2015. Growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors was subdued... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia can afford to ride out a period of low oil prices We think concerns that Saudi Arabia is drawing down its savings to maintain spending in the face of lower oil prices misses the point that these buffers were built up precisely for a time like this... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack All-property yield compression picks up pace in Q1 The pace of euro-zone all-property yield compression picked up in Q1, driven mostly by the office and industrial sectors. At the all-property level euro-zone rental values rose by 1.2%q/q, but that... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Banks report slowing loan demand but aggregate credit growth nonetheless remains strong as lower yields have encouraged firms to turn to the bond market for funding. 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) The RICS April housing survey implies that a chronic lack of liquidity, not economic fundamentals, is driving the gains in house prices. The combination of depressed sales and rising prices is exactly... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of winners from China’s rebalancing While it isn’t hard to find EMs that have been hurt by the slowdown in China, identifying winners from the positive aspects of its rebalancing – such as rapid growth in household spending – has proved... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
