US Housing Market Chart Pack Promising signs from the mortgage market The sharp rise in home purchase mortgage applications, to a two-year high in April, was an encouraging sign that the market may finally be turning a corner after years of stagnation. Admittedly... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why aren’t consumers spending more? Consumers in advanced economies have so far opted to save, rather than spend, their oil windfall. However, strengthening labour markets, buoyant asset prices, and high consumer confidence all point to... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) The drop in consumer price inflation in April was due in large part to a decline in food price pressures, but perhaps the more significant point for the Reserve Bank is that core inflation remains low... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Mar.) The surprisingly rapid expansion of South Africa’s manufacturing output by 3.8% y/y in March is unlikely to signal a significant turnaround for the embattled sector. We expect that labour disputes and... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why the Gulf’s dollar pegs are here to stay The sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of last year has thrust the Gulf’s dollar pegs under the spotlight but there are plenty of reasons to think that the risk of currency devaluation remains... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ scrap its monetary base target? We are not convinced that the BoJ’s decision to use the monetary base as its operational target limits the effectiveness of QQE, as some are suggesting. More problematic is that the reduction in real... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production figures were a tentatively encouraging sign that a recovery in the sector is resuming after several months of stagnation. 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the rise in EM bond yields The sell-off in the bond market in developed economies that grabbed the headlines over the past few weeks has also hit emerging markets but, so far at least, it does not provide much cause for concern... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in April suggests that the Riksbank’spolicy easing so far has eradicated the threat that deflation becomes entrenched. Accordingly, further... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese tourists to keep current account surplus in check China’s goods trade surplus last year was a third higher in dollar terms than at the previous peak in 2008. Yet the country’s current account surplus – the broadest measure of its economic imbalance... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) We doubt that the weakness in the latest BRC Retail sales figures offers much cause for concern. Indeed, with real wages rising robustly, employment strong and consumer confidence at a 12-year high... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Mar.) & Czech CPI (Apr.) Turkey’s higher-than-expected current account deficit figure for March provides further evidence that weak exports have almost entirely offset the benefit to the economy from lower oil prices. And the... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr. 15) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in April suggests that the Riksbank’s policy easing so far has not eradicated the threat that deflation becomes entrenched. Accordingly, further... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Record current account deficit a cause for concern Canada's growing current account deficit probably hit a record high in the first quarter, as the impact of the recent slump in oil prices hit export revenues. The lower Canadian dollar will help to... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Return of Russian wheat to put more pressure on prices With food price inflation appearing to have peaked and the economy probably already in recession, Russia is unlikely to extend its export tax on wheat. Although the authorities may leave the door open... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China's policy direction supportive of copper demand All the signs are that the Chinese authorities are committed to using the powerful tools at their disposal to prevent a “hard landing”. We expect that this will result in stronger demand for... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
