Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC turns a little less dovish The press release accompanying the Czech National Bank’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate and the exchange rate ceiling were left unchanged, was dovish but less so than in March. As a result... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar to remain a strong performer, but downside risks mounting Qatar was the MENA region’s best performing economy last year and, with low oil prices unlikely to derail the government’s investment programme, we expect it to grow at a decent clip of 5.0-5.5% in... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why aren’t consumers spending their extra cash? The recent softness of retail sales suggests that consumers are saving their windfall from lower energy prices. However, there are still good reasons to think that the money will end up being spent. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update FAO Food Outlook (May 2015) The FAO’s initial forecast for world cereal production, including wheat and corn, is for a fall in 2015, after two years of consecutive record harvests. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in gilt yields does not reflect election concerns Although gilt yields have risen over the last few weeks, this seems to have reflected easing fears of deflation, not growing concerns about the outcome of the general election. So with little... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s rate pause to continue through 2015 The Malaysian central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today. The key uncertainty in the months ahead is how spending reacts to April’s tax hike. As things stand though, we expect... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s dong devaluation not about export competitiveness Today’s 1% devaluation of the dong by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is unlikely to provide much of a boost to exports, as some have suggested. Looking ahead, we are only expecting minor adjustments... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production (Mar.) Although March’s French industrial production figures were a little disappointing, the sector has fared well at the start of 2015 and appears to have made a decent contribution to GDP growth in the... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Zurich and Geneva office rental values set for further falls The negative effects of the Swiss franc appreciation on economic growth and employment suggest that the recent stabilisation of Geneva and Zurich office rents is unlikely to last. Rather, with vacancy... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production data from the Czech Republic and Hungary show that both economies ended the first quarter on a strong note. Indeed, these data, put together with the latest retail sales... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank on course to meet 2016 inflation target Inflation is likely to have remained subdued by past standards in April, with a small pick-up in transport inflation being offset by muted food and core price pressures. The big picture is that the... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Apr.) The 2,900 drop in Australian employment in April brought to an end a strong run for the country's labour market and pushed up the unemployment rate. Although we would be wary of reading too much into... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan’s stock market should continue to outperform Recent data suggest that economic activity held up fairly well at the start of the year and that the labour market continues to tighten. However, there are no signs that price or wage pressures are... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
