Global Markets Update Four reasons to worry about the UK election The UK general election on Thursday is the most hotly contested in recent history. There are many plausible outcomes, most of which present different threats to the UK’s financial markets. We review... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data suggested that overall household spending registered a fairly strong increase in Q1. But the decline in April’s composite PMI implied that the economy might have... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Apr.) April’s Markit/CIPS report on services should allay fears of a renewed slowdown in the economy following the deterioration in the manufacturing and construction surveys already released. That said... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) The widening of the merchandise trade deficit in March to C$3.0bn, from C$2.2bn, mostly reflected a decline in the terms of trade, whereas export and import volumes rebounded by a similar margin. For... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch The “new normal” for Chinese steel There has been much talk about the “new normal” for the Chinese economy, involving slower and more sustainable growth. In this Metals & Mining Watch, we discuss the implications of the “new normal”... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakens further as BRICs struggle Manufacturers across the emerging world appear to have continued to struggle in April, according to the latest PMI data. The slowdown was driven by weakness in the larger BRIC economies. Meanwhile... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The surge in the trade deficit to a massive $51.4bn in March, from $35.9bn, means that the economy contracted slightly in the first quarter. Nevertheless, the enormous 7.7% m/m jump in imports is... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) Although the CoreLogic index of house prices surged again in March, we suspect that it is somewhat overstating the true strength of the market. 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Mar.) The month-on-month fall in Chile’s IMACEC activity indicator in March was due largely to severe floods in the north of the country, which disrupted activity and led to the temporary closure of many... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Election just one reason to keep rates on hold We doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee would want to change monetary policy so close to a general election, especially when a new government might not even have been formed by the time of this... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Apr.) April’s dip in the commercial construction PMI could be a sign that developers sense that the recovery in occupier demand is fading. But such a conclusion seems premature to us. Therefore, it is... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) The latest whole economy PMIs from the MENA region suggest that the boost to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the recent “accession bonus” has already started to fade. The bigger picture, however, is that... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria 2015 budget: looking behind the numbers Falling oil revenue will cause Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen in 2015, but we do not expect the shortfall to exceed 2% of GDP. Despite talk of tightening fiscal policy, federal government spending... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s raft of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe, released today and yesterday, suggest that conditions in the Russian and Turkish industrial sectors improved a little at the start of the second... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia’s economy slowed again in the first quarter, underlining the challenge faced by the country’s new president and adding to the case for further rate cuts. Although we doubt growth will slow... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
