Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 2% won’t be the floor The cut in interest rates to a new record low of 2.00%, from 2.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today is unlikely to be the last in this cycle. Our forecast that both GDP growth... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in April, underpinning the difficulties facing the sector. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, a boom in... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The PMIs for Emerging Asia in April were generally disappointing. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, manufacturing output now appears to be contracting. 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why the RRR is still an effective policy tool in China There appears to be a great deal of confusion around how cuts to the required reserve ratio (RRR) affect China’s economy, with some even suggesting that changes to the RRR have no impact on monetary... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz singing from same old hymn book In his appearance before the House of Commons Finance Committee last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reassured policymakers that the economy is showing signs of progress and that the... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor sentiment improves Base metals prices rose strongly this week, in large part owing to renewed investor interest. Data suggesting persistent weakness in China’s economy are fostering hopes of additional stimulus measures... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities lead the pack Some weakness in the US dollar and hope for a delay to the first US interest rate hike helped to support commodity prices in April. Meanwhile, although Chinese economic data showed persistent weakness... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices facing more US dollar headwinds The appreciation of the US dollar since the middle of last year has been a contributing factor in the general decline in agricultural commodity prices. In this Agricultural Commodities Watch we look... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that only Italy and Ireland made any improvement in their budgetary positions in Q1. And the latest data from Greece are far from encouraging. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) Although it was unchanged at 51.5 in April, the ISM manufacturing index is still at a level consistent with GDP growth of nearly 2% annualised. Given the extent of the dollar's appreciation over the... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of an extended global slowdown look exaggerated The weakness of the US and China in Q1 and some softer data elsewhere have led to suggestions that a broad-based global slowdown is now underway. We think that is not the case. Growth has held up well... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery should endure political uncertainty With a hung parliament appearing overwhelming likely, Thursday’s general election looks set to be followed by days, if not weeks, of political horse-trading, and whatever government is finally formed... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Deflation dangers have not yet lifted April’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation to zero left the latest bout of falling prices shorter, at four months, than that seen back in 2009. But with fundamental forces still bearing down on inflation... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures showed that consumers’ appetite for credit is increasing. But strong rises in real incomes this year should ensure that a pick-up in credit growth is sustainable. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks below 4% Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since the global financial crisis, and only the second time in almost 15 years. What’s more, with China’s slowdown... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
