UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.) & Money and Credit (Mar.) The combination of the deterioration of the Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing but improvement in the lending figures highlighted that the economic recovery has become increasingly dependent on... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) Mortgage approvals for house purchased flatlined in March according to the Bank of England. Some buyers may be holding back to make use of the various home buying inducements currently being promised... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the BoJ introduce negative interest rates? Negative rates on central bank reserves could be one way to reduce bank lending rates further in Japan. This idea has received some attention in the media recently, but it does not appear to be under... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending, Consumer Prices & Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) While the labour market continues to tighten, inflation remains near zero and wages are barely rising. The BoJ will have to step up the pace of easing before long. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) A stable PMI for China counts as good news after the recent run of poor data. But the official PMI has not been a particularly reliable guide to trends in industry over the past few months, so we’re... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s dilemma laid bare The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) Although February's GDP stagnation was a more mild result than most expected, the details indicated that the fallout from the slump in oil prices hasn't really hit yet, while other parts of the non... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview March weakness unlikely to be repeated in April We don't think that the unexpectedly weak 126,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March signals the start of a deterioration in labour market conditions. Other indicators have remained at robust levels... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery falters The recovery that was seemingly underway in most parts of Latin America towards the end of last year appears to have faltered in recent months. Indeed, our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee weakness unlikely to concern policymakers The rupee was one of the worst performing EM currencies against the US dollar in April, but we doubt that this will cause panic among India’s policymakers. Over a longer time horizon the rupee remains... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still ultra-loose Global monetary conditions remain highly accommodative as the world’s major central banks have kept policy rates close to zero and some have continued with large scale asset purchases. Conditions in... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya CPI Inflation (Apr.) Kenyan inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 7.1% y/y in April, and we believe that weak food production and the depreciation of the shilling will increase inflationary pressures later in the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies regain lost ground Most currencies in Emerging Asia recovered some ground against the US dollar in April as investors pushed back their expectations for rate hikes in the US. Equity markets also started the month... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Ireland’s economic recovery a statistical illusion? The strength of Ireland’s recovery has been overstated due to a number of statistical distortions to GDP. But the economy does still seem to be on the mend. And the conditions are in place for Ireland... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
