UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) In contrast to this morning’s GDP data, the RICS commercial property survey implies that business confidence and activity levels are healthy. At the margin, this adds weight to our view that the... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Mar.) According to the BBA, mortgage approvals for house purchase increased at the fastest monthly rate for over a year in March. Despite the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter, the economic... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q1) With the general election just days away, the news that the economic recovery slowed sharply in the first quarter clearly won’t help the coalition parties. However, we expect the slowdown to be only... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US rig count continues to drop Another large fall in the US active rig count last week has disappointed those who had hoped it was stabilising. But they probably won’t have to wait too much longer to see a floor. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equities in the Gulf rebound as Yemen fears ease While the crisis in Yemen has dragged on, stock markets in the Gulf have rebounded in the past month as fears that it could trigger a broader regional conflict have eased. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) Small business confidence weakened in April and remains consistent with sluggish activity in the manufacturing sector. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Keeping its rate cut promise The recent stronger-than-expected data means that a cut in interest rates at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting on Tuesday 5 th May is no longer a done deal. But we still think the... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The renewed plunge in retail sales values in March suggests that consumer spending may have fallen last quarter. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A glimmer of hope for Brazil’s manufacturing sector Some of the structural constraints that have held back manufacturing in Brazil over the past decade now appear to have eased. So while we don’t expect an imminent turnaround in the sector, or an Asian... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rally in iron ore prices to prove temporary The recent rally in iron ore prices is reflecting short-term market dynamics, including an upturn in Chinese steel production and somewhat lower stocks. But the bigger picture is that the market... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Increased financial inclusion will support growth in Africa New figures from the World Bank confirm that Sub-Saharan Africa’s nascent banking sector is developing along a trajectory not seen in other emerging markets. The rapid expansion of a more inclusive... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty holiday will provide little help to first-time buyers Labour’s proposal for a three year stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers will distort the market and will not address any of the market’s deeper failings. That won’t help FTBs. Indeed, it could... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Has the threat of deflation passed already? Signs that price pressures have picked up a bit during the past month or two have prompted some to suggest that the threat of deflation has vanished almost as suddenly as it appeared. We disagree. In... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2) The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided some reasons to be optimistic that the sector’s poor performance in the first quarter does not herald the beginning of a prolonged period of weakness. 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
