Europe Economics Update Are Irish and Spanish housing bubbles reflating? Revivals in Spain’s and Ireland’s housing markets should help to support their wider economic recoveries. While Spain’s housing recovery is likely to be slow, Ireland’s is already going strong. This... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: limited room for interest rate cuts this year Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday night and above target inflation and a large current account deficit limit the room for monetary easing to counter slowing economic... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ could spring another surprise With economic activity sluggish and inflation slowing, we think it is a question of when rather than if the Bank will step up the pace of its asset purchases. Mr Kuroda has given no hint recently –... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pace of payroll job gains likely to slow The faster pace of payroll job gains might normally be a more trustworthy gauge of labour market trends than the more volatile Labour Force Survey employment figures. The slowdown in real GDP growth... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing faith in monetary policy? While we agree that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is right to conclude that monetary policy is less effective now than before the global financial crisis, we disagree with suggestions that this... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Relative calm unlikely to last In a relatively quiet week, oil prices consolidated their recent gains as the consensus swung round to our view that the lows recorded in Q1 would prove to be the turning point. However, powerful... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High stocks will overshadow lower cotton production Expectations of lower cotton production for this coming year have underpinned a rise in prices. However, with a glut of stocks, we still think the price will end the year lower. 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More stimulus from the BoJ could give the Nikkei a further lift 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis starts to restrain the recovery Friday’s Eurogroup meeting did not appear to result in any further progress towards a solution to the Greek crisis. While Greece has found a bit more money down the back of the sofa (or in state... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak first quarter won't stop the Fed hiking rates this year The Fed is still likely to raise its policy rate later this year. A September lift-off is the marginal favourite, but June and July are possibilities, if it becomes clear quickly that the first... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Retail Sales (Feb.) The pick-up in retail sales growth in February suggests that consumer spending in Mexico has strengthened in the early months of this year, even if problems in the mining sector have weighed on wider... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 4.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a sharp rise in transportation orders. The fall in core orders suggests that the outlook for business investment in equipment... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should pick up Having fallen sharply since late-2014, we expect US steel prices to stabilise and pick up over the course of this year owing to resilient domestic demand. That said, our forecast also assumes that the... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks underline need for MPC caution Although all eyes are on the general election due to take place in less than a fortnight, developments across the Channel have the potential to be just as important an influence on the UK economy in... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q1 2015) Data on Asia’s Q1 cocoa grindings showed a 9.3% y/y decline, the third consecutive y/y fall. This follows declines announced last week in Europe and North America. 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A manufacturing migration? Rapid wage growth, rising land costs and the appreciation of the renminbi have all helped to make China a less attractive place for low-end manufacturers to operate. Recent trends in foreign direct... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
