Africa Chart Pack Nigeria’s election does not end economic woes Nigeria’s 29th March election was a political triumph; the largely peaceful vote resulted in the country’s first-ever democratic transfer of power between presidents from different political parties... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has QQE really lifted inflation expectations? In contrast to the Bank of Japan, we are far from convinced that QQE has lifted inflation expectations. In fact, wage and price setting behaviour have changed little since the programme was launched... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is the fall in the number of vacant dwellings telling us? The sharp fall in the number of vacant dwellings over the past couple of years seems to support the view that there is a severe shortage of housing. But with other data showing that the dwelling stock... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s rise in the Ifo German Business Climate Indicator (BCI) suggests that economic conditions are holding up despite the Greek crisis and comes as a relief after falls in the ZEW and PMI surveys. 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does the economy struggle when governments are weak? GDP growth has been weak during the term of several governments which had only small majorities. But we would not conclude from this that the fragile government that this general election may yield... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Signs of continued cyclical weakness Some of the latest data out of India have given reason for cheer, but there is plenty of evidence of continued cyclical weakness. For example, capacity utilisation rates are low, growth in sales of... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The continued deterioration in China’s manufacturing sector signalled by early business surveys for April is disappointing, but the prices of key industrial metals have already factored in a lot of... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Slowdown in world trade growth is structural Over the past four years the volume of world trade has grown at a much slower pace than prior to the financial crisis. Recent downward revisions to WTO forecasts show that the international... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt stands pat as inflation rises The decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to leave interest rates unchanged today was a close call, but it looks like the recent rise in inflation tipped the balance on the MPC away from lowering... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Disappointing start to Q2, but no disaster Business surveys released today suggest that the world’s four largest economies slowed in April. But global growth has not collapsed. Indeed, our flash global manufacturing PMI still points to a solid... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Return of Iranian oil unlikely to budge Saudi Arabia The recent deal between Iran and the West means that it is now very likely that substantial volumes of oil from Iran will return to the market. (We do note that although a final deal is not guaranteed... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence not dented by election uncertainty With two weeks until May’s general election, the polls still show that no party is likely to win an overall majority and the composition of the next government is unclear. Despite this ongoing... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weather conditions start to take centre stage With eyes now starting to focus on the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere, changes in weather conditions have underpinned fluctuations in many agricultural commodity prices in recent weeks. In... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) The fall in new home sales in March is more likely to be a temporary payback after strong growth in previous months rather than a sign that housing activity is starting to cool again. In any case... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Prospects for monetary policy should still underpin the US dollar 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (Feb.) & Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) Activity data from Mexico for February were a little weaker than expected and leave the economy on course to grow by a relatively sluggish 2.5% y/y in the first quarter of the year. There is better... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
