India Economics Update How much of a threat is the surge in gold imports? The surge in gold imports last month is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including an unleashing of pent-up demand by buyers that had been expecting tax cuts (which didn’t materialise... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A strong start The Australian economy appears to have shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. It's possible that it grew by about 1.0% q/q in the first quarter, which would be twice as fast as the rate seen... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Continued fiscal restraint will slow economy down Although the Conservative-led government fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit, fiscal restraint at this juncture seems unnecessary considering the negative fallout from the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook A strong economic backdrop and low mortgage rates will lead to further house price gains A number of measures indicate that the strong economic backdrop has led to a boost in housing market sentiment. However, active housing demand remains very subdued. In part that reflects a lack of... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Election set to have bigger market impact than previous ones Recent UK general elections have barely affected markets and this one has yet to have a material impact too. Nonetheless, we could still see a big movement in asset prices in this election’s wake. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation starting to firm Core inflation is beginning to show signs of firming. The rebound in the annual core CPI inflation rate to 1.8% in March may not be enough to leave Fed officials "reasonably confident" that inflation... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals further easing to come The communiqué accompanying today’s decision by the Hungarian National Bank to cut its two-week deposit rate by 15bp, to 1.80%, was very similar to last month’s and clearly indicated that another... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece default and stay in the euro? Suggestions that Greece can default but remain inside the euro-zone overlook the fact that Greece needs both a very large debt write-down and a more competitive currency. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The implications of a fall in EM dollar GDP There is a good chance that emerging market GDP, measured in dollar terms, will fall this year. But while this will weigh on investors’ dollar-denominated returns and could raise debt burdens in EMs... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for March show a 2.7% m/m decline in global steel output, with falls in most of the largest producers. However, some recovery can be expected in coming months... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China will not stifle growth elsewhere China’s growth rate is set to slow a little further in the coming years. This will have a significant knock-on effect on some other emerging economies, but we think its overall impact on growth in the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Low vacancy rates set to support office rental growth in Germany Vacancy rates across Germany have edged lower over the past year. Consistent with that, rental values have also been moving up. Given that vacancy rates are now generally below their pre-crisis... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Reasons to remain upbeat on Mexico Despite a recession in the mining sector and an impending fiscal squeeze, we remain upbeat about Mexico. A gradual improvement in the labour market and a likely recovery in the US, after a weak start... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Apr.) April’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that fears over Greece are starting to dent confidence in the German economic recovery. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q1) The BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further slowdown in loan demand last quarter. But the survey has not been a reliable guide to the pace of credit growth recently. While we can’t rule... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
