US Economics Weekly Recovery in retail sales has a lot further to run The weakness of real consumption growth in the first quarter is puzzling since the slump in energy prices effectively gave a large tax cut to households. In that respect, it appears to have parallels... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rebound in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April which, aside from this January's reading, left it at its highest level since 2007 and well above the long-term average... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Outlook for cocoa prices remains bitter Further falls in European and North American cocoa grindings suggest consumers’ love of chocolate is not as sweet as it once was. Coupled with ample supply, we expect the price of cocoa to fall this... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook More winners than losers The pace of global growth slowed in the first quarter, but it is likely to recover during the rest of the year and in 2016. The windfall gains from lower oil prices, rising employment and continued... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) Today’s raft of activity data for March is consistent with Russia’s economy having contracted by around 3% y/y in the first quarter of this year. Although financial markets have rallied over the past... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline consumer prices increased by a slightly smaller than expected 0.2% m/m in March (the consensus forecast was 0.3% m/m), there are now clear signs of a firming in underlying inflation... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does the economic outlook hinge on who wins? The fiscal rules proposed by the Conservative and Labour parties in their manifestos last week suggested that the latter could borrow an extra £130bn more than the Tories over the next five years if... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Mar.) Data released today show that India’s trade deficit widened in March, but remained at sustainable levels. The more worrying aspect is the collapse in exports, which leaves the government’s longer term... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Feb.) The labour market has regained considerable momentum following the slowdown in the second half of last year. Accordingly, the demand for commercial property space, and thus rental value growth, is... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Feb./Mar.) The UK’s employment miracle shows no signs of drawing to a close. And with some slack still left in the labour market and pay growth not yet threatening the 2% inflation target, the MPC remains under... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Turkish inflation is deep-rooted There is a growing debate in Turkey about what lies behind the strength of inflation, but we think this discussion has overlooked the absence of spare capacity. Without structural reforms to address... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the use of JGBs as collateral hamper QQE? Around 20% of all Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are currently used as collateral with the Bank of Japan or in private repurchase agreements. However, there are various ways to ensure that a... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
