Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off concerns about deflation and strong zloty Having left the policy interest rate unchanged at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish National Bank’s governor, Marek Belka , dismissed suggestions that the strengthening zloty and March’s weaker-than... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) Although the 0.6% m/m decline in March industrial production was mainly due to the unwinding of the weather distortion, which triggered a spike in utilities output in February, the weakness in the... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will an Italian economic recovery boost commercial property in 2015? Despite recent positive economic data, the Italian economy is unlikely to rebound strongly this year. Nevertheless, a loosening of credit standards and the fact that real estate loans are now being... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Four and a half reasons not to worry about China’s slowdown The relative weakness of China’s Q1 GDP and March activity data has reinforced concerns about the impact of softer demand on global commodity markets. But in contrast to the consensus, we remain... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal paths not as different as manifestos imply The political parties’ manifestos have confirmed that the scale of the fiscal squeeze could be very different depending on which of them is in power. But there are various factors that will probably... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African retail sales a positive surprise, but outlook still grim February’s strong South African retail sales data suggest that the economy’s Q1 slowdown was less severe than we had feared. But even so, we expect that weakness in the mining and manufacturing... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Headwinds to continue weighing on growth in 2015 There was another strong bout of seasonal disruption in the monthly data released today, but confirmation too that key trends from last year have continued into 2015. The property sector remains a... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India overtaking China – what is all the fuss about? Among the more headline-grabbing developments in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is that the Fund is now forecasting India’s economy to grow faster than China’s in 2015 and 2016. But putting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) February’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro is still only providing a small boost to the region’s exports. 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s economy to hit a crunch point sooner rather than later Algeria is among the most vulnerable economies in the MENA region to lower oil prices and, while large FX savings mean it should be able to muddle through for the next few years, the economy will... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Wholesale price inflation fell further into negative territory in March to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. Crucially, core inflation continues to drop sharply, providing more evidence... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts rates to new lows, door opened for more Against a backdrop of falling inflation, the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) today cut its deposit and lending policy rates by 50 basis points each, to 6.0% and 7.5%, respectively. 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar. 15) Sweden’s headline inflation rate picked up further in March. But with inflation likely to remain well below target and the underlying rate unchanged, we continue to think that the Riksbank will cut... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) Although house price inflation rose to 4.7% in March, from 4.4%, the existing home sales-to-new listings ratio suggests that any further pick-up is likely to be short-lived. 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF: catching up with reality The IMF is making headlines with its forecast that the world economy faces a “new reality” of lower potential growth during the coming years. But arguably, it is the IMF which is catching up with... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weaker dollar provides a breather Commodity prices have generally risen since the middle of March, supported by a slightly weaker dollar. However, concerns about Chinese demand have weighed on the prices of some commodities... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
