UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.) The RICS survey reported that house prices are starting to gather pace. While demand is still subdued, the few buyers that are in the market are competing for a dwindling number of homes for sale. 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What could policymakers do next if QQE doesn’t work? The Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target remains out of sight despite the benefits of a much weaker exchange rate. With the potential to expand QQE in its current form limited, new approaches are... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Mar.) Australian employment rose by 37,700 in March, adding to signs that the economy has made a reasonably healthy start to the year. However, we doubt this will last for long. With GDP growth set to slow... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will curb on visitors hurt Hong Kong’s economy? New restrictions on the number of visits mainland residents can make to Hong Kong will affect only a small proportion of visitors to the territory. The retail sector will be put under further pressure... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Uncertainty over tax policy could stifle private investment Comments from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley that he plans to raise nearly US$6.5bn by retrospectively taxing foreign companies would, if acted upon, represent a major relapse on economic reforms, and... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of the ruble rally The most convincing explanation for the recent rally in the ruble is the fact that the strains in Russia’s balance of payments have eased since the start of the year. Nonetheless, they haven’t gone... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 0.75% The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 0.75% this morning, showing confidence that, after stalling in the first quarter, the economy will rebound in the second quarter and never look back. We... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) February's larger than expected decline in manufacturing sales, which partly reflects some temporary shutdowns at auto assembly plants and bad weather, is further evidence that first quarter GDP... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Dollar strength alone is a poor reason to dismiss gold A common response to our positive view on gold is that the precious metal is bound to struggle in an environment of dollar strength, especially if this strength is due to increases in US interest... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data add to evidence that US oil production may be slowing more quickly than the market had anticipated. Coupled with further signs of a revival in demand this should support prices in the... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia eased further last month, to 2.0% y/y, driven in large part by a drop in housing rental price inflation. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can the rally in lead prices be sustained? The boost to lead prices from the recent squeeze on stock availability may prove temporary. That said, it has exposed the underlying tightness in the market which should be a key factor supporting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB will implement QE in full and may need to do more ECB President Mario Draghi sent a clear signal today that the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic outlook would not result in an early termination of the quantitative easing programme that... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
