UK Economics Chart Pack Few signs of election uncertainty undermining recovery Although GDP posted its smallest quarterly rise since 2012 in the first quarter of this year, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. The business surveys suggest that Q1’s 0.3... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide the best evidence yet that US oil stocks are at least levelling out and maybe about to start to trend lower. What’s more, the data also showed a further increase in demand and... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How strong is the $1,200 floor for gold? The gold price has closed below $1,200 per ounce, having been above that level the day before, on 15 occasions since January 2011. However, it has never remained below $1,200 for longer than 15 days... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Structural budget balances don’t tell the whole story In theory the structural budget balance, which takes account of whether an economy is running above or below its potential level, provides a useful summary of a government’s fiscal position. On this... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment diverging, but for how long? Over the past month the S&P GSCI agriculture index has continued to fall, weighed down by large declines in the prices of corn and wheat due to improving supply prospects. As a result, the index... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) The latest decline in the share of households suffering mortgage payment problems provides more evidence that the housing market is slowly normalising. To the extent that it encourages lenders to ease... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down talk of tightening Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference in an effort to temper the market’s expectations for interest rate hikes... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, hike likely later this year Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the Committee’s increasingly hawkish tone leads us to believe that rate hikes will come in late 2015... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Post-election negotiations unlikely to redraw fiscal outlook Our Election Preview, published 30th April, contains our detailed analysis on the election. Here we answer questions clients may have about the possible series of events over the coming days and weeks... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone outperformance will be short-lived The euro-zone economy looks likely to have outgrown both those of the US and UK in the first quarter of the year, for the first time since Q1 2011. But the outperformance looks set to be short-lived... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The fall in Russian inflation last month, to 16.4% y/y, suggests that it has passed its peak. As the effects of last year’s fall in the ruble unwind, we expect inflation to ease gradually over the... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Are high construction costs holding back housebuilding? The latest dip in housing starts has been accompanied by a sharp rise in construction costs. But it is shortages of labour and materials, rather than an increase in their costs, which seems to be... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gains from migration haven’t been exhausted Migration into China’s cities appears to be slowing but the economic gains it has brought are far from drying up. Improvements to agricultural productivity should free up rural labour for years to... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) Brazil’s industrial sector contracted once again in March, meaning that output fell by around 2.3% in the first quarter of this year. Other sectors of the economy have fared slightly better in recent... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The sharp rise in home purchase mortgage applications in April suggests that the market could finally be turning a corner after several years of stagnation. It’s early days yet, but the conditions... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
