UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report supports financial markets’ (and our own) view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is in no rush to raise interest rates. However, we do not think that the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) China’s credit growth slowed further in April. But with policy now easing, credit growth should stabilise in the months ahead, helping to relieve some of the downward pressure on the economy. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sedlabanki holds, but interest rates to rise soon Although Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today, it adopted a much more hawkish tone, signalling that it was likely to start hiking rates as early as next month. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Mar.) The start of the year has seen further improvement in the labour market, with unemployment falling further and real pay now growing strongly. This suggests that the positive momentum in rental value... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prov.) Q1’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union outgrew both the US and UK in the first quarter. But with signs that the Greek crisis is starting to constrain the recovery, the euro-zone... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Mar./Apr.) The soft tone of the labour market figures should temper expectations of a near-term interest rate rise following yesterday’s relatively hawkish comments by some MPC members. Although the fall in... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Weaker-than-expected data for April suggest that activity in industry and the real estate sector continued to slow coming into Q2. That said, with China’s economy less reliant on these sectors than it... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian property capital values ready for lift-off The Hungarian economy stands to see above-trend growth rates in the coming years, supporting occupier demand. With the prospects for rental values turning positive, yields look cheap on a historical... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Hungary, Romania & Slovakia GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected preliminary first quarter GDP estimates out of Hungary, Romania and Slovakia are particularly encouraging in light of the slowdown in the German economy. All in all, the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The increase in the headline index of today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) masks a deterioration in some of the subindices, and we still think that economic activity will remain sluggish in the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Mar.) The current account surplus jumped to a multi-year high in March, and we think that it will be the highest this year since 2010. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki holds, but interest rates to rise soon Although Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today, it adopted a much more hawkish tone, signalling that it was likely to start hiking rates as early as next month. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Response – Economy hung out to dry The 2015-16 Budget will quash any talk of a credit rating downgrade, but won’t give the economy a much-needed helping hand. The decision by Treasurer Joe Hockey not reduce the coming fiscal squeeze... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) Industrial production data for March were a bit softer than expected and suggest that Mexico’s economy grew by a disappointing 0.3% q/q or so in the first quarter. There are some signs that weather... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
